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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26483)	12/20/2000 7:07:08 PM
From: Dealer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

Garzarelli----Get ready for the bulls Garzarelli buying early cyclicals By Joe Mathieu, CBS MarketWatch.com Last Update: 1:05 PM ET Dec 20, 2000 NewsWatch Latest headlines Get Alerted NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- It's time to buy, according to money manager Elaine Garzarelli, who says low stock valuations and the prospect of lower interest rates will soon have the bulls herding back to Wall Street. She is certainly putting her money where her mouth is, stacking her portfolio with one hundred percent equities. Today on CBS MarketWatch Nasdaq plunges 7.1% as downgrades smash averages After-hours roundup: AT&T issues warning, cuts dividend Merrill casts critical eye on big tech Sellers rule Net sector SEC chief to step down next year More top stories... CBS MarketWatch Columns Updated: 12/20/2000 5:19:34 PM ET Stocks have tumbled since the Federal Reserve chose not to lower interest rates Tuesday, but Garzarelli says investors should not be too concerned about a hard landing. "I think the Fed is doing the right thing and the stock market should, in the next few weeks, grasp the idea that even if there is a recession it will be short lived, because they are going to ease interest rates and stock prices should be moving up." Listen to the interview. So what's on Garzarelli's holiday shopping list? She's focused on stocks that will prosper with easing interest rates, like brokerage firms, banks and building materials. Those include companies like Masco (MAS: news, msgs), Merrill Lynch (MER: news, msgs), Charles Schwab (SCH: news, msgs) and Lehman Brothers (LEH: news, msgs). Garzarelli also recommends other cyclical sectors like apparel, including Liz Claiborne (LIZ: news, msgs), and hotels like Hilton (HLT: news, msgs). And then, there are the techs. Garzarelli, who has been very weary of most high-flying technology stocks, thinks a bottom is in sight. "A lot of the technology industries will have down earnings in 2001 because of the slowing economy. Historically, after the first down quarter of earnings, the stocks start to move up. As soon as we see that, techs should go up as their earnings continue to decline through most of next year." She thinks many of the widely held tech stocks; like Microsoft (MSFT: news, msgs), Intel (INTC: news, msgs) and Oracle (ORCL: news, msgs) will have substantial rebounds next year. "I think the S-and-P should gain 20 to 30 percent next year, and these stocks should be up 40 to 60 percent." Texas Instruments (TXN: news, msgs) has been one of Garzarelli's favorite picks over the past year and she sees more buying opportunities before the stock begins to move higher. Despite low valuations across the board, Garzarelli thinks there are still some investments to avoid. She shies away from metals, papers and chemicals, "They usually don't begin to rally until about six months after the Fed eases." Garzarelli also says many sectors, which have performed well this year, will be the losers of 2001. "It's a mistake to be in electric utilities, as well as soft drinks and beverage stocks. You want to get out of the defensive, stable industries and start moving to the early cyclicals, like financials and brokerage firms." Garzarelli, who manages Forward Funds' Garzarelli U.S. Equities Fund (FFDEX: news, msgs), sees a 99.9 percent chance of lower interest rates next month. "I think in January, we're talking about 25 to 50 basis points (lower). Stocks will react when all this gets into investors minds and the stock market will help the economy turn around."

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26483)	12/20/2000 7:24:40 PM
From: Jill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Jim, I was curious about QCOM today, whether it would hold its Nov 30 low I believe that was 75 1/4, well it didn't intraday. I asked about that in "da room" and next support was 68, I believe. I screwed up several times this last 10 days, and it was the same kind of mistakes I made earlier this fall. Teresa came into "da room" and talked for a while as we were grinding slowly nowhere this afternoon. She noted that you must always know why you entered a trade when you did, and already know where you're going to exit if it turns against you. And mental stops are no good as you'll revise them. Or you'll get blown away by some afterhours warning when you're not watching. In addition, her clients used to set "mental stops" and then refuse to lose until they "puked at the low." They were called "weak handed longs"--they tried to pick bottoms that weren't really bottoms. I don't feel a bottom is in place myself either simply because we've ground down and ground down and in spite of various "pukes" there hasn't been a big one. I really did think it was in the other day when intc warned and we held steady but I was wrong. She says as for stops, don't begrudge the mm their pennies and dollars, you're preserving capital. For instance who knows when an afterhours warning in your stock or its sector might just crash it (as in extr, ugh). She is 1000% right about all this and what amazes me is when I follow, learn from her, watch the setups as she does (w/ her neutral bias)--the supports and resistances she marks always do show up...and I trade okay...even well...and I make $ every day. But when my evil twin, the one who can't forget the qcom days of calls that went up 10,000%, gets restless, she calls in orders on the road, or refuses to get out at a few point loss, and boom... I wonder how many lessons I'll have to learn? I mean, the same lesson again and again. Anyway, things do not look too rosy here. I'll read her market wrap later tonight (she's in Vancouver so posts around 9 or 10 our time) but I recall last night she said that either we will consolidate today or if we don't, lookout below. So I can understand why you want to short, but one thing to think is just short the QQQ, which moves fairly slowly, and you don't have to wait for an uptick. In "da room" Jerry says people get their feet wet shorting that first. I still haven't tried even paper shorting....maybe in the New Year.

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26483)	12/20/2000 8:08:12 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

First I have to get back in the shorting mode. I rather short when everyone is dancing in the street. The idea of vulture shorting is something I'm not skilled at since I have never had much of a chance to do it till now. I also like to short when market goes higher in down trend, but gal darn it all, they are just dropping like rocks which goes with vulture shorting and dancing on graves. I'm worry that I will be just joining the crowd now. I agree with pick high PE stocks, that are addressing a broken or slowing area. I think BRCM is good one with the broadband roll out being severely delayed. Greg

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26483)	12/20/2000 8:33:10 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Since PALM is the pinicle in handhelds now the below will only throw more water on the fire. SLUMP means jump and ask question later. HAND of course is the weaker of the three since they have to pay PALM, where as RIMM has created a franchise. RIMM, HAND, and PALM have been tragets more so now. , <<AN FRANCISCO, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Personal organizer maker Palm Inc. <PALM.O> expects sales to slump slightly in the third quarter from the quarter just ended in a seasonal turn intensified by parts shortages, the company's chief financial officer said on Wednesday. Judy Bruner told a conference call that Palm's revenues for the third quarter, December to February, would be $465 to $490 million and sales for the entire fiscal year would be $1.9 to $2.0 billion. Sales in the quarter ended December 1 were $522 million. Palm books revenue when it sends products to distributors, so most of its holiday revenues are recorded in October and November, the company said. "Component constraints will ease in the February or March time frame," she said. Earnings per share would be in line with current Wall Street estimates, she said. "If you do the math in terms of the earnings guidance," she said after detailing forecasts, "you would arrive at earnings estimates in that range of approximately 1 cent for Q3 and 3 cents for Q4." >>

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26483)	12/20/2000 8:35:06 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Jim, I see you used YAHOO for your PE's for your short list. Keep in mind that YAHOO does not take out one time charges, etc., when calculating PE ratios. QCOM's last 4 qtr's add up to $1.03/share..... @ $77 1/8, todays close, QCOM's trailing PE is 74.88. They should have few problems earning $1.45 - $1.50 in the next 4 qtrs..... Their PE is not out of whack by any means IMVHO..... Considering the potential for CDMA going forward, QCOM stands to see phenomenal growth for the next 5 yrs. I realize QCOM hit you hard this year. Got me real good too. Don't let that bad experience cloud that exceptional intellect of yours Jim. If Chiner or India, etc. make any formal announcements..... I would not want to be short the Q*. As bad as this market has been to me of late, I can't imagine going short in here..... after a rally, perhaps.... but only on high fliers that might see real slowdowns. BWTFDIK anyway??? Ö¿Ö

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26483)	12/20/2000 8:44:11 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 65232

Here is another one. SUNW, I mention this week sometime, that I thought SUNW will have a harder time to stand out from the rest of the server vendors, throw in the obvious new economy myth, plus CEO's comments below, you have another one to look at as short candidate. You really have to buy into and get yourself in the mode to think like a short, to be any good at it. That doesn't mean you have to be ass about it, but using the terms mentally like POS, PIG are helpful. LOL Given your obvious tendency to gravitate to the dark side you should be a natural. LOL <<Sun Microsystems Memo Tells Workers to Cut Costs, CNet Reports Palo Alto, California, Dec. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Sun Microsystems Inc. Chief Executive Scott McNealy said the computer maker will need to cut costs and be more circumspect in its hiring as the U.S. economy slows, Cnet's News.com reported. In a memo sent to employees Tuesday, McNealy praised Sun Microsystems's ``stunning'' revenue growth, but said employees should mind the cost-controlling measures put in place this quarter, CNet said. ``We will have to respond to changing economic situations in our spending and hiring decisions,'' McNealy said, according to the Web site. The cost-cutting measures include the delay of some projects, CNet said, citing Sun Executive Vice President John Shoemaker. McNealy denied reports of delays in systems based on its new UltraSparc III chip, CNet reported. >> Greg

To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (26483)	12/20/2000 11:26:20 PM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

here is more PALM dodo spin. key words to look for coming out of CEO's months BELOW!! <g> <<Palm Q2 sales narrowly beat forecasts SAN FRANCISCO, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Palm Inc.<PALM.O>, the No. 1 maker of hand-held electronic organizers, announced Wednesday that second-quarter sales more than doubled, just beating Wall Street forecasts, and said it would buy WeSync, a wireless services vendor. Quarterly sales were below the high end of the company's own recent forecasts and shares plunged in after hours trade. <b/> Greg