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Strategies & Market Trends : The Stock Market Bubble -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (3312)	12/20/2000 9:04:41 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Respond to of 3339

I don't think that we will have anything more than a mild recession. And I hope so too! If the Fed has to choose between growth and inflation, they will surely go for growth in such a scenario. However, this doesn't mean that the stock-market, and in particular the high-flying Nasdaq stocks will be bailed out. The decline (especially in the Nasdaq) will end only when the vast majority of investors throw out their holdings regardless of price, and then swear to never invest in the market again. When that happens, we can look at the Nasdaq index going below 1000, possibly bottoming somewhere in the 500-750 range by late 2001 or early 2002.

To: Tommaso who wrote (3312)	12/21/2000 9:41:58 AM
From: Professor Dotcomm	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3339

You made a good point in mentioning a possible parallel with the Japanese stock market. The big danger, IMHO, is not a hard landing nor a soft one - but no landing at all! After 11 years Japan is still in a holding pattern like a modern day 'Flying Dutchman'- stuck in the miasma of deflation after its asset bubble burst in 1990. Deflation is really scary. 1929 was catastrophic but what was worse was the 10 years of deflation that followed it. The only investment that made sense was coupon clipping government bonds.