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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kollmhn who wrote (82250)	12/21/2000 8:54:26 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

kollmnh; re: <THE FUNDAMERNTALS DO MATTER> Wrong... and obviously so. If they did - the OSX would be at 150+ and Nat Gas E&P's would be trading at alltime high multiples to cash flow & earnings - not UNDER historic norms. Koll; clearly these stocks have disconnected from their fundamentals - that's an obvious fact. You have to be a moron; or simply in denial to state otherwise. (... or; just a stubborn egotistical blowhard with a fatalistic iNet attraction who likes to try to take the opposite side of someone just for the sake of arguement.) How can the Natural Gas stocks not have blown thru alltime highs if the "fundamentals mattered" ? - please explain ? ... this is this greatest set of fundamentals the E&P industry has EVER encountered - ever ! Lowest supply Hightest demand Demand curve ramping Highest Combined Commodity Price for BOTH Oil & Gas Record alltime earnings AND cash flows. If the Oilpatch has NOT completely disconnected from Fundamentals; please explain ... But; as ususal koll; you're more than a little slow on the uptake and have missed the entire point. The point being - that from time to time the fundamentals & "the price of Oil(Gas) - Stupid" .... do matter and do control the shareprice momenteum in the Oilpatch; but lately they haven't and the reason is the weak overall broad market and the slowing US economy. If you don't see this Koll; I'd suggest prying loose some of those imaginary "Carl Sagan Dollars" and buying a new pair of glasses (VBG). Oh & PS: ... hurt me bad. re: Short Gold ? - as usual koll; you don't have the guts to say - "I am shorting gold" - so you throw in that little "? mark" to cover your ass. You never take a stand to where you can be measured; far better to use inuendo and latter claim to have done it - if it supports your case; or point to the "? mark" as to not having done it; if doing so later was wrong...grow some balls; Koll - do it, or don't; but don't throw a "?" mark in there to cover your ass... PS: - The "ASS Coverers" (other than "Q") hang out over on Yahoo - in their little "circle jerks"... back on topic - re: Gold Technically - the XAU is perhaps the chart Du Jour - a beautifull & very classic rounded longterm bottom just put in. Nearly a 30% bounce from the index low and many individual stocks up 50% from their lows. Koll; I don't know about you... but other than a few immaterial individual trades during the former spring NAZ meltdown; I just entered the Gold stocks during the 3 mo period from Sept-Nov on a portfolio weighted basis for the first time in my life & built this portfolio weighting during the single cheapest "quarter/3mos" out of the last 15 years in the XAU. I don't know if that would qualify as a good market timing call in your book; or not... but, suffice to say - over time from what I see; anyone who accumulated a portfolio weighted position in any cyclical at the single cheapest 3 month period out of the last 15 years; ultimately over usually a very short period of time - has done quite well & over a medium term; has done extremely well. As far as Gold/Silver & the XAU - we shall just have to wait & see... #1. Gold trades in opposition to the US dollar - we don't need a NAZ crash; and a NAZ crash without a correcting dollar will do little to move gold.But, in combination with a correcting dollar - it's potentially fuel on the fire. Fundamentally; The unsustainability of the Dollar at these levels with our current account deficit is one of the key attractions to investing in XAU Stocks here. under 2.9% GDP - our "surplus" disappears. A falling/correcting US equity market; not to mention a collapsing debt market; leads to foreign repatriation of US investment - that also pressure's the US dollar downward. Without question the policy of the Fed, US Treasury & the ESF has been to maintain King Dollar. In doing so - they've "stabilized" the US Dollar by supressing Gold - this is not a paranoic assumption; it is merely economic policy fact. The Fed had to calm inflationary fears during the final blowoff top of consumer spending, a historic reckless credit expansion on both corporate & consumer fronts, excess money supply and a rising CRB with the rise thru $30+ Oil... everyone looks to Gold as a historic barometer of inflation; so supressing & controlling that barometer was simply the most cost effective & efficient means to support US economic policy and maintain King Dollar & foreign investment flows into our little equity & debt market bubble. The same stereotypical nonsense has been thrown at Gold for centuries... Gold has been given it's last rites often & by far better than Kollmnh & his Chickenshit "?" mark - ass covering qualification (VBG)... In fact; during the last 15 years; the XAU has basically had 5-6 "V" bottom moves to XAU 150. Gold also has allways had a nice move at the end of all recent "Oil Shocks". OPEC has allways moved strongly to Gold to hedge the simultaneous implosion to their net receiveable - of both falling prices for Crude Oil & the collapse of the US Dollar in which they are paid for their crude oil. Not unlike the OSX; the XAU has boom to bust cycles and in between cycles - sentiment reaches terrible levels; the demise of the commodity is oft declared once again, it's role is yet again minimized etc... but; it keeps coming back.... allways has; allways will. But; unlike Oil; Gold is not just a commodity - it is money. But; the single greatest stereotype that the naysayers like you kollmh; do not understand - is that the XAU/Gold & Silver stocks do NOT need a broad sentiment change to move substantially - they never have; as it is a tiny, tiny micro-market. In fact; it is the same small "flight to safety" investment shift that runs gold on each cycle; not unlike it is the same undelrying investor base that flocks to Oil during its up cycles. Gold Stocks are an incredibly small market sector - the door is very, very narrow - when the crowds move in, or out - the stocks show major moves. We do NOT need a broad sentiment for Gold Stocks to move substantially; just the normal sector rotation, some Petro-Dollars being hedged and anyone smart enough to see our US Dollar is at it's most inflated level in our history & we've got the opportunity to buy historic "hard assets" at nearly their cheapest levels in history - that my fine feathered friend; is OPPORTUNITY ! For Gold; if not here & now; when ? - is the only question. Technically; it don't get no mo better than this ~ even they naysayers love the charts here... Fundamentally ? - cheapest valuations in XAU history & cheapest Net Asset Valuations on a $ per ounce of production & ounce of reserve basis. And anyone who accumulated during the last couple of months; just bought Gold Stocks at the cheapest window of opportunity in HISTORY ! - the ONLY way I'll be wrong kollmnh; is if Gold just suddently loses it's 2000 year old luster & suddently becomes meaningless.. not that the worlds central bankers still don't keep a little on hand, not that there isn't industrial, monetary-coinage, jewelry & monetary storeage demand & use... Last Rites ? ... I don't think so... Opportunity of a 15 year cycle ? - yes; imho - that's exactly what it is for BOTH Gold & Silver. I realize as usual - your take on Gold is grounded in simpletonian euphemisms & crummudgeonesque stereotypes (but, would/should we expect anything less from you ?); but suffice to say - you are basically clueless as to the catalysts to the Gold/Silver stocks & the POG... Fundamentally as far as a catalyst; the US dollar drops if the Fed cuts rates (and gold rises when the dollar drops)... and what is the Fed going to do/have to do shortly ? Fundamentally on a valuation basis - still many stocks near alltime, or multi-year lows; but more importantly trading at alltime low fundamental valuation multiples - such as $ to ounces of production & ounces in reserves. Gold was, is and allways will be money and we now have a historic opportunity - perhaps the opportunity of a lifetime to "trade in" - the most inflated level of the US Dollar for the most suppressed level of Gold. - it don't get no mo better than that - bank on it. Trading US Dollars for "real hard assets" - is the key to this market here & now - it does NOT get any more simple than that.... and kollmh; of all posters here; I would think you could relate to - "simple" ~ Ciao ~