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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (41004)	12/20/2000 11:43:35 PM
From: Ian@SI	Respond to of 70976

Gene, If you look at MU reporting 2¢ less than the estimates, then going up a little less than a $ in afterhours, one could conclude that a lot of bad news is already factored into the current prices. ... especially if one looks at the sector as still having record billings. ... and still taking orders sufficient to build the backlog by another 12%. Clearly, if Greenspan creates a global recession, we're going to see the backlog shrink rapidly; and a lot lower prices than today's. Seems to me that the market has already started its move toward expecting that recession. Should the Fed ease, we may see a change in market sentiment shortly thereafter. Until that happens, you'll probably do well with your current strategy. IMO.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (41004)	12/20/2000 11:45:53 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Eugene, I already posted what I think: numbers down = bad. It had to happen some time. But will this be the start of a regular down leg in the cycle? Or will it stop and reverse soon? I don't know. Besides, since April we had: numbers up = bad, so what is new? Seriously - if the lower SEMI numbers don't have a significant effect tomorrow, they may be priced in. And if reason prevailed, these new numbers would be considered good at this late stage in the cycle. But reason does not prevail as long as the $treet needs to create new opportunities to profit. Just keep watching your 30 wk and 200 wk ma and don't forget to cover :) Gottfried