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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Math Junkie who wrote (41005)	12/20/2000 11:58:58 PM
From: t2	Respond to of 70976

2.74 billion in bookings is an eight per cent drop from the previous month, much worse than September's blip. It's also hard to see how bookings could reaccelerate (from record levels) in the face of a weakening economy. I would also add that these numbers are not good but that still depends upon the company we are looking at. PE, Cash and debt levels, markets they serve could determine the direction for the semis. I would also look at the DRAM spot pricing as one of the key indicators in the current environment. Also watching for any changes in PC shipments from company conference calls (January) and press releases. The communication chip stocks are also to be watched---they have been very bullish on demand for their chips (PMCS, VTSS, AMCC). The semis can turn very quickly given their valuation if any sign of life is seen in the economy. I am looking for any positive news on this front to load up on semis. Think it is too late to short them.

To: Math Junkie who wrote (41005)	12/21/2000 8:19:54 AM
From: michael97123	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

this number under the current circumstances seems ok to me Rambling on--I hope i dont bore you all with what follows. If anyone wants me to stop these somewhat rambling, insane pronouncements just ask. I am getting sick of reading me too. Meant to say it was expected or priced in. December likely to be worse I guess. My belief, and maybe you are right that it it through rose colored glasses, is that the btb should pick up early next year and we should continue on a sustainable growth path. I assume rate cuts in this scenario as well a end of inventory correction and market meltdown. I know i assume alot here but my gut says we are not in the 70's(no deja vu), that AG knows the world economy it too important to be allowed to fail and that failure given the nature of fragile young democracies(and movements) would lead to conflict. I yelled and screamed for an entire year that AG would not sacrifice the health of the economy for one annual point in inflation or to correct a bubble(which would have corrected itself over time with fewer rate hikes). Instead, whether by design or by accident he has brought us to the brink. He will now come to the rescue using any means necessary, including the jailing of Merrill analysts(just kidding). Got a prime piece of real estate picked out down here on Wall St. if the market proves me wrong. Plan to sell apples on that corner if there is no rally. As far as the rally goes, we might need more pain first. I am not sure. I heard on one of the news programs last night that investors are happy that prices are lower and view the prices they are getting in 401ks as a bargain. Do we have to break their will too or is it the sharks on Wall St. who can continue to fuel this like the Merrill guy yesterday who said cisco would meet the numbers but downgradedd the stock. Some folks just think brokerages are just using those sell tickets to pay for the bonuses.