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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (5736)	12/21/2000 9:19:28 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

JT you are a braver man than me. The thing that knocks me down was yesterdays gap. On a 10yr daily chart it is clearly visible. A long dark candle. (On expanding negative breadth - holy cow). The odds are greater than even on a lower close today. Yesterday was a gearshift in the market. This was a bull market extraordinaire. I believe we have to see an extreme in VIX@35 - been there done that. We are within 10% or so for long term insiders to want to throw in the towel - those guys and girls who got in in 94. God knows about the 0800-GETMEOUT phonelines today. A lot of the generals are at LTCM lows or worse. Why not NDX? We are at(and one would expect) some really significant support levels but these were not really effective resistances over the past 2 years or so. The FED was in line and the market got smacked, PALM was better and it got smacked. LTCM is I think a good comparison except instead of the professionals being +10 x leveraged you have the individual investor. I have browsed over various panics LTCM98, ASIA97, IRR-XUBERANCE96, GULFWAR, OCT87. VIX@35 is nothing it reached 100+ in 87. TA deals with repeating patterns and probabilities. These crises are extreme distribution effects. TA does not work at these junctures to predict levels - that is why all my support/resistance level stuff is looking so flaky. I have no clue what works now - EWT /astrology/animal sacrifice. It is going to be a streetfight and if you buy in the next few days good luck to you. I need to see a nice reversal pattern. There are too many longs out there and they have probably bought their XMAS gifts and lost their receipts. The market always has a returns policy - its just that you dont always get the price you paid for it 1st time. -macavity

To: J.T. who wrote (5736)	12/21/2000 12:58:18 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Respond to of 19219

Absolutely predictable! The MomentuMonkey has turned NEUTRAL from SELL, but it has a bearish tilt. The new target for the S&P 500 Index is 1250, down 2.4% from the current level of 1281.62 (11:45 am CST). Momentum has been upgrade to NEUTRAL from NEGATIVE. Valuation remains NEUTRAL. The momentum has slowed to run over some bottom fishers and "over-sold" junkies. My guess is we go down sharply tomorrow again. Merry Christmas! P.S. I've heard that litigation is being filed against Santa for the unlawful counting of the list twice. P.S.S. The grinch award goes to AT&T for cutting its dividend just before Christmas.

To: J.T. who wrote (5736)	12/21/2000 3:26:14 PM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

I have switched 100% Long NDX OTC at tonights close for a 1 day counter-trend bounce. Seasonality factor tomorrow should be up smartly. Best regards, J.T.

To: J.T. who wrote (5736)	12/22/2000 3:01:02 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, December 21st: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 398.6 Million SPX Short- URSA 244.7 Million NDX Long - OTC 1,772` BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 89.8 Million XAU Precious Metals 46.0 Million Biotechnology 502 Million Money Market 1,296 BILLION ******************************************* Dynamic Series (200% correlation) SPX Long - TITAN 71.9 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 15.9 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 118.9 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 37.1 Million ******************************************* It is 15 degrees below ZERO with wind chill over 30 below. It is friggin cold here in Badgerland and my brain ain't workin. Tomorrow we have a 67% chance of being up thanks to 50 years of data by Stock Traders Almanac and considering we are still deeply oversold and in positive seasonal day tomorrow - it is a slam dunk to be LONG the Rydex NDX 100 OTC. NDX Long OTC Total Assets are clearly at capitulation levels and we should bounce back above 1.9 Billion before moving back down. Historically, the last trading day before Christmas and the first trading day after Christmas bode very well for the market as it has a 73% chance of being UP. However, this long trade is a one night stand quickie. I don't like bad surprises after the bell tomorrow only to come back and give up smart gains. My bwain just froze up. Back tomorrow. 100% Long NDX OTC for the counter-trend santa trade. Best Regards, J.T.