To: UnBelievable who wrote (50203 ) 12/21/2000 7:34:49 AM From: pater tenebrarum Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 436258 well, there continues to be a cluster of cycle turns dead ahead. basically it all depends on whether Dec. 27-29 proves to be a low or a high. if the former, i would expect the market to rally into the full moon on Jan. 9. if instead it is a high, i would look for Jan. 9 to be a potential panic low date. essentially the sequence of events is not problematic for put holders as long as one of those dates indeed coincides with a panic low. it has been noted by a few e-wavers that in the current decline the fifth waves tend to extend, i.e. tend to be the longest waves. if this pattern continues, it too would argue for the 'expect a panic low' theory. the ideal cycle buy point remains late January, where possibly a retest or a somewhat lower low should occur. in the very near term, in view of the current w3 having attained minimum length we may be in for a slight 4th wave bounce, and some choppiness. whether this bounce will hold into the close, or continue into tomorrow, i have no opinion on. what argues FOR such a bounce is also the fact that down/up vol. on the NAZ was so extremely lopsided yesterday. the caveat of course being that put buying was subdued, and that the break of support in many indices may induce more selling regardless. my conclusion is to hang on to the puts for now...and not to get cute trying to catch every little wiggle. note however that i speak from the position of using the house's money...having taken partial profits on this latest downswing already. one simply can't rule out that all of the above will turn out to be wrong...when a market's in free-fall, abrupt reversals tend to occur at some point. note also that RUT, Dow and NYA have not confirmed the SPX/OEX new lows for the move yet.