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To: hitsoft17 who wrote (82292)12/21/2000 5:10:42 PM
From: cnyndwllr  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
 
hitsoft17. I've been thinking more about what you said in your post: <<One thing that has always been present in any serious "for real" downturn/recession is a building fear in people that they will lose their jobs. When this starts to take hold it sets in motion a downward spiraling sequence of events that the FED or no one else can stop. When this happens there is severe impact on the retailers, financials, housing, autos, and virtually everything else.>>

I think that is why I am not concerned YET about the long term. Some lack of confidence has seemingly affected retail buying but not the kind of confidence crisis that would likely start the cycle down beyond the fed's ability to control the descent.

All this could change in the event of a meltdown in California or the US as a result of energy problems. It seems this crisis in Ca is a combination of too little drilling, screwups in handling the deregulation and poor planning in the purchase of long term contracts for electricity compounded by poor transmission capacity for electricity and natural gas and, of course, a republican governor that we just got rid of.

I am still uncharacteristically cautious because of the energy "tax" aspects of this slowdown. Ed