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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (45274)	12/21/2000 9:25:39 AM
From: kvkkc1	Respond to of 77400

Since individual selling would be hard to move the price the way it has, the institutions and funds are selling. Are there redemptions out the ying yang? Probably. Do they want the public to know? Probably not. They'll hold off the bad news in hopes of a market turnaround as long as they legally can. Businesses hate to give bad news. Look at LU/T as perfect examples. The trump card for CSCO is that their management is open about their business. Yet, analysts believe they know better than the folks who have an almost real-time look into current sales. I place much more faith in CSCO's management than any analyst opinion. I'm sure when John Chambers calls a customer, they are much more upfront than they are with some dipsh$t analyst. Maybe that explains why they're wrong every quarter when they call for CSCO shortfalls. Until Chambers tells us business has changed, I'll take his word over anyone else's. Bull or Bear.knc

To: Stock Farmer who wrote (45274)	12/21/2000 10:29:26 AM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 77400

John, In 1994 CSCO's products targeted a far narrower market and CSCO's position in those markets was not what it is today. Furthermore the use of infrastructure technology was not viewed as pervasively as it is today.... with some notable exception. So, I think you have give a market leader some premium. I also think you have to consider some rethinking in the markets and how they've changed. The trouble as I see it is that too many people look at companies like CSCO as being set with regard to opportunity, markets, products, etc.... You can't compare the sectors in which CSCO plays and companies like CSCO to more mature companies playing more mature markets. I think that's called linear thinking... this isn't a linear model. That all said, stock prices are driven by supply and demand (this is the argument I used to have with bambs about 6 months ago). So stock prices have far less to do with fundamentals that you may want to believe.. they have to do with how many people want that certificate versus how many people want to sell it... it's a market of it's own... that why they call this the Stock "Market". SO while us folks stand around and talk about company fundamentals and FOMC and cap ex... etc etc... the bottom line is that these only serve to influence the supply/demand equation for buyers and sellers... but that have no direct effect on stock price. To my point - if information is mis-interpreted or if expectations change (right or wrong) the stock price will be effected... even though the expectations may be based upon erroneous assumptions. OG