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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MetalTrader who wrote (82305)	12/21/2000 10:00:42 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

NG E&P stocks up at open... APC +0.96 EOG +1 MND +3/4 BR +7/16 except DVN -0.65 I was afraid they would get dragged down in another market decline. MetalTrader - How are you buying Euro bonds ? Directly, or through a fund ? My International Bond Funds (RPIBX, BEGBX) have been doing well.

To: MetalTrader who wrote (82305)	12/21/2000 10:32:21 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

MetalTrader.... <<wrote calls in core drillers last week and missed the burst of early this week, but rotational lemming behavior tells me at first sniff of a tech bounce those calls will be safe.>> ... actually; I think the drillers have some strong "potential" upside; after this pause that refreshes shakeout - as the Street must first determine "how soft" we are going to land; as to judge "demand" as it relates to the oilpatch and "demand" will determine Cap Ex spending levels from the Majors. We allways forget that just subtle, small realtive % changes in demand - make for significant reactions & moves in the commodity markets. Our King Dollar (along with a reckless credit expansion) allowed US consumers to buy an unprecented amount of foreign goods; as the dollars corrects - expect Asian economies to slow. Japan is still a total mess etc... and we know what a slowing Asian economy did to Oil prices back in 1998; now we are the Slowing Economy ourselves; and also we are the Dog that wags the Asian Economy tail as well... When momenteum changes in the Oil & Gas futures markets - the pendulum oft` overswings...and momenteum is changing quickly in Oil for fundamental demand reasons & the Nat Gas market domestically has a 75-90 day potential "peak" window here due to the unprecedented confluence of events... there WILL BE a massive profit taking move to the exits in Nat Gas prior to the end of winter - bank on it. Surely; for 9-15 mos; Nat Gas is fundamentally supported at $4-$5 imho; buy why would someone pay more for these E&P stocks over the next 6 mos.(and remember the market looks at least 6 mos forward) for BR NBL EOG XTO COG et al; than they were here at $8 Nat Gas & especially; when in the next 6-9-12 mos Nat Gas supply & demand will return to equilibrium and Nat Gas Prices back to the 3-5 year moving average range in the $2's... I'd be a "call seller" on the high flying NG Pureplay E&P's on any further significant "weather related" moves thru this winter... probably not a bad call here; but I'm waiting for either selling calls, buying puts, or openly shorting these stocks for a final "Updraft" speculative breakout due to a total collapse in California; or the mother of all Arctic Blasts in late January, early Feb (ideal timeframe)... The other factor is many E&P's are obviously also levered to Oil and Oil prices are swiftly retreating... even the Nat Gas pureplays tanked along with the Oilier names in Crude Oil contractions... a negative sympathy move is also in the cards as we near the low $20's imo. But; I think the offshore drillers have the most subsector upside "potential" from here; if we have a soft landing & recover in mid-2001. So I'd rather sell calls on Independant E&P's off the still potential "updraft" speculative move yet to come; than to write off the drillers next spring... It's the risk vs reward that I find unattractive here on the longside. The OSX is in no danger of breaking out to new highs here imo; not with the US Economy - read Oil/Gas demand in question and not with a weak, hi-risk overall stock market. It's an ideal place to sit patiently for real capitulation bottoms, or in the case of Nat Gas stocks; a speculative updraft top to short. (of course holding Gold/Silver stocks in the meantime (VBG). <<buying eurobonds for inevitable dollar drop when fed and central bank have gotten ducks in a row for january fed cut.>> ... well; I'm not into EuroBonds; but you've got the "drift" right... Dollar down = Euro up & Gold stocks are the "leveraged" way to play the dollar fall & the Euro rise & POG move. I think you also hit on a major point here. This last little OSX bounce was NOT longterm money making a value decision - quite the opposite; it was "hot" money that most certainly will flow right back to tech & out of Oils; the moment the Fed Cuts and/or Tech Rallies... you're the first (well the 2nd one(VBG) to read this correctly. There will ultimately be some incredible opps in Tech... and surely some babies thrown out with the bathwater... but; don't think we're there yet. Patience; Gold/Silver & Cash. ... and shorting the Nat Gas pureplay E&P's if we see that "final" updraft event in the Nat Gas Market this winter (again, the later in the season the better); is the best trade I see on the Oilpatch horizon in the next 90 days. The Street will NOT take the Oils to new highs in the next 90 days - not with the US economy / demand in question - no possible way. We've got a 90 day window where risk far outweighs reward & external catalysts and NOT our fundamentals (listening Koll ?) determine our future. ... my .02 cents fwiw ~ ========= PS - anyone have any "short candidates" in the broad market. RIMM caught my eye; upside eps surprise of .02 cents ? - a $78 stock here ?.... $50 is next support on the downside and while the product is great; a .10 cent earner at $80 bucks in this environment ? - I wouldn't want to be long... it goes on my short watch/target list... doing initial "DD"... PEPSI and some of these flight to safety cash parking lot stocks seem to have gotten over-bought; food & beverage and drugs got run up as "safety havens" not on their fundamentals and they are NOT immune to a slowing economy... I'm trolling there as well. Biotech's are still insane & the last bastion of speculation... Final thought: no NAZ DCB today... if not here; when ?!?!?! ... ding dong the DCB is dead ?