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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/21/2000 2:31:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

Geroge look at the chart of XLK with runaway gap to the downside, seems capitulation to me. BWDIK Haim

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/21/2000 2:44:29 PM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

George, this Bear is behaving methodically just like it was described in the Oracle of the Dow. The bear has time on his hands. He's in no hurry. Slowly, methodically, he is picking every berry on the tree and leaving nothing behind, TA ------------------------------------------------ Message 13861774 << Question: How else do you categorize this bear market? Answer: So far, it is one of attrition, a deadening process that goes on and on. Stock after stock falls victim to the bear, but the action is subtle, and nobody seems particularly worried. The averages rally a bit, often on lower volume. They decline, they wander about aimlessly, but meanwhile, selected stocks get hurt, and many get hurt badly. As this bear market moves along, attrition will give way to nasty selling, big breaks in stocks and rising volume on the downside. We're not there yet. Meanwhile, is the bear playing with us? Is he trying to lull us into a false sense of security? Is he trying to bore us to death? Damned if I know, but I do know this: The bear has time on his hands. He's in no hurry. The bull certainly was in no hurry, and the bear is perhaps just getting even. >>>

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/21/2000 3:05:25 PM
From: zamboz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Agreed. A week ago, I was fixated on CSCO breaking down. Nothing much left in the NAZ now that hasn't been taken to the woodshed. When the rally started this AM, I checked KO, GE, FNM, and BA in the DOW. Some damage on GE recently, but not a shellacking. Others have no damage. KO has a PE of 70. DOW needs to fall hard below 10,000. Put/call ratio won't top 1 decisively until this happens. Maybe after the Grinch steals Christmas.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/21/2000 7:15:23 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

George-I gather Don Hays said yesterday in a conf call that he expects the DJIA to hold its low?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/22/2000 2:38:57 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 99985

Well said.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/22/2000 4:51:57 PM
From: sea_biscuit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Implicit in your statement is the belief that 1800 or 2000 is the absolute floor on the Nasdaq... And that is the fallacy in your argument that capitulation will not come from Nasdaq investors. Try 600 to 800 instead. Of course, by that time the Dow could be easily below 7000, and the S&P around 800 or 850.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/22/2000 7:45:19 PM
From: 45bday	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Curious as to who was doing all the selling while the naz plumeted 2700 pts. I agree those who are still holding will not sell unless absolutely forced to by a margin call as they already neglected to follow rule one _ always use stops. Now they will sit and pray and unfortunately are too afraid to buy at these levels when they should be buying. So they will ride the wcoms of the world up and down for the next few years waiting in vain for a return to $50 while the traders make a lot of money.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/23/2000 11:15:19 AM
From: majaman1978	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

The Dow has not really corrected and I can easily see 7000 next year. This will take down the Nasdaq even more. Unfortunately it's the dow companies buying a lot of this high tech gear and if they slow down capital expenditures, watch out. It's already happed with a lot of this dot com garbage. People don't realize this. The rate cuts won't mean shit, either. Too little too late. Even if rates weren't raised at all this year the economy would have slowed. It's just part of the cycle. Go look at the early '70's markets, this is where we will be heading basically in the same direction. The Dow and Nasdaq won't take huge tumbles but just bleed to death.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/24/2000 11:39:07 AM
From: NO Bull	Respond to of 99985

What big 1998 trough?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64928)	12/25/2000 12:09:43 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

George: I looked for the same thing and wondered about it, how every lets keep in mind the Dow did go below 1000 this year and the changes made in the DOW since 1998, has also caused her to become more of a hybrid index. She is a lot more techy than she was in 98, and she did dip hard early this year. The Dow has not done as good as the S&P in years, but her changes are going to have her out doing the S&P in the future. ---------------------- I don't think you can use the historic relationship of indexes, when one has made dramatic changes in it's make up. BTW when the GE & Hon marriage is final they will add another stock to the DOW to replace HON..you can almost bet it will be a tech..( CSCO or EMC ) are my best guess. Jim