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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (2985)	12/21/2000 2:57:06 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

The Jan Fed Funds futures are pricing in a 50% chance of an intermeeting ease by the Fed , and the Feb Fed Fund Futures are pricing in an 82% probability of a 50 basis point ease! the economic numbers are collapsing... Philadelphia Fed index plunged to -6.1% in December, surpassing the -3.8% reached in October and the lowest since Sep 1998. The regional manufacturing index is extremely volatile (+5.2% in Nov) but the continued downtrend argues that the manufacturing downturn is not slowing. The components showed further declines in the price indices as prices paid -- inputs -- fell to 13.9% (30.8% six months ago) and prices received -- finished -- fell to -2.9% (+10.5% six months ago). New orders actually rose modestly to 4.9% as shipments (sales) fell back below the zero mark which differentiates between growth and decline. The six month outlook also pierced the neutral mark falling to -3.7%.