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To: chowder who wrote (82383)	12/21/2000 5:15:32 PM
From: AltLar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Someone posted a while back that OPEC produced under their quotas last month for the first time in a decade. Does anyone have a link to the source? If they are producing at capacity, a Feb cut announcemnet must be a foregone conclusion -- as an attempt to mask their constraints. If it looks like they are underproducing in order to control pricing it is much less of a red flag to other producers who would most likely quickly ramp up capex if they believed OPEC was at max. Larry

To: chowder who wrote (82383)	12/22/2000 8:40:42 AM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 95453

The idea I favor would be to go long fertilizer companies who have access to lower prices of NG. More than fertilizer prices influence the ag commodities - most importantly domestic weather and the weather of the other major producers. It's only an outside chance that high ng prices lead to higher corn prices b/c of decreased domestic fertilizer production. Significant export capacity exists in central Europe and Russia, although Western European and Asia producers will also be at an advantage to NA producers at current prices of NA NG.