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To: hitsoft17 who wrote (82397)	12/21/2000 6:30:43 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OT JimL and hitsoft17. With regard to signs that may point to an impending drop or rise in the nadaq, I noticed that Jim posted that amat was one he might watch for signs of a tech recovery. If we don't get the downdraft that I and hitsoft17 discount, amat might be one to watch, but I think the telecommunication stocks like nokia, erickson, and motorola will be leading indicators, followed by the chip stocks themselves and then a surge in selected chip equip makers like amat, mtsn, lrcx nvls, etc. The equip and chip stocks led last time and will again if things pick up, but their major momentum which has built up over the last 18 months requires a lot of new orders to sustain it. The next big impetus for a strong updraft might come from wirelessing the rural areas and developing countries with mobile and fixed wireless creating a renewed incremental demand for mobile phones and gadgets, computers and all of the chip hungry infrastructure they require. The need and the demand are clear, the technology is there or nearly there and hopefully politics, oil and financing will allow it all to happen. As soon as I see signs of increased outlook for nokia and motorola, I will get really bullish. In the alternative, as soon as it appears that all of the bad news is priced in and all the mo-mo money is gone, it may well be a good time to start buying the exaggerated dips. Ed

To: hitsoft17 who wrote (82397)	12/21/2000 6:32:15 PM
From: hitsoft17	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

I was just looking at some of the recent devastation in techland and thinking back. National Semi supplies a fairly broad cross section of components to various providers of telecon, computational, and entertainment stuff. They seem to have acceptable margins and moderate growth. They also have a PE around 5. I remember a time not too long ago when I was sitting in my study angry and bitterly disappointed in a stock I had bought that had gone from 12 to 4 or so. Right there on the screen was it's PE of 2. Thats right TWO. I thought to myself this thing is for the birds. I however kept it. That was TMAR the little boat company that could. It went on in the next two years to quadruple. Now granted semis aren't oil service stocks, but the point is if one can just make themselves believe that some of these beat up tech stocks will just double sometime in the next two years, it will beat the average stock market return in every year since the buttonwood tree. Hell, it's not hard for me to believe that a few of the more beaten down issues can double before Easter. Sorry for the rambling........ Hitsoft17