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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (26854)	12/21/2000 8:08:27 PM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

thanks, Tim, you are very kind and observant here are more economic calls, put them on your refrigerator with all the downward momentum in the economy, it will affect consumer spending, capex spending, new annual budgets, and IT planning... the climax for the numerous rate hikes would have been late autumn2k, EXCEPT for the last two illadvised rate hikes... the May 50bpt hike not only was stupid, but it was carried as an inverted yield curve for an entire 7-month period, ouch... when you slam the brakes and HOLD IT for 7 months, you slow the battleship into more than a simple stall the further stupidity was accentuated by considering crude oil higher prices as inflationary, instead of earnings recessionary... as the brakes were slammed, a few bears were loaded onto the big Mack truck we call our economyh... so the economic low climax has not been seen... the econ low is not even VISIBLE EXPECT AN ECONOMIC LOW ABOUT EARLY SUMMER TO LATE SUMMER with little appreciable recovery until 6-8 months past the SECOND rate cut... that second rate cut should occur in midMarch FOMC, unless an interim cut happens... dont count on it, since that requires losing face, lost credibility, and a severe humbling by the Anointed King Greensheiss... aint gonna happen translation: economy decays thru the summer, then stabilizes, then builds back in autumn with stock market leading indicator mechanism, EXPECT STOCK MARKET LOWS IN FEB/MARCH not now, not yet, no effing way !!! to say the lows are in for stocks ignores the painful continued hitting the brakes EVEN NOW... just today we have 80 bpt difference between FedFunds rate and 3-month TBill yield... every day we have the effect of slamming the brakes... IT IS NOT A ONE-DAY EVENT BACK IN MAY... it causes damage EVERY SINGLE DAY it will take two rate cuts to get to neutral in March... at that time, the brakes will be off... until the 3rd and 4th rate cuts, nobody is yet stepping on the gas pedal econ recovery 6-8 months after the 3rd rate cut, i.e. Sept minimum, probably late autumn can you say mini-recesssssssion ??? Naz is attempting to make a low now wait until early January for a fresh round of warnings we just finished warnings for current Q4 loose guidance was given for next fiscal year in midJan, lateJan, earlyFeb we will get many more warnings a reflex recovery rally will set up a fresh new downwave thanks again for the kind words how do I make money on being right occasionally with analysis ??? saw movie "Vertical Limit" about K2 in Pakistan... grade "B+" / jim