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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (64996)	12/21/2000 11:24:25 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

George, of course, that could be, but by January, I doubt that there will be a clarity of Bush tax cuts intentions, and I doubt the feds are going to reduce rates in conjunction with a massive tax cut, that will send te market into another bubble which the feds have been trying to restrain. I think that the feds are going to have to see at least two months or more of unemployment above 4.5% before they even start and think about putting new pressures on labor markets, and average job creation dropping consistently under 30,000 before they fear a recession. Getting the economy growth rate declining to 2.5% is exactly what the fed's consider "soft landing". It will take more than two months for that to be evident, thus my own suggestions that the earliest cut would be during the March meeting not before. If we get a financial accident (a market crash for instance) then the fed may react much faster, but an "orderly" decline will not precipitate Fed's action IMHO. As for the 3 months T-bills, where do you think that the government is parking money it does not need for the next three months? Probably in short term T-Bills, and $50 Billions received in the last three days could have impacted these markets together with the "hope" of a fed cut. I thnk those "professional" are wrong and by the middle of next month, T-Bills will be back to $5.75% to 5.8%. Zeev