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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jhelmers who wrote (11634)	12/22/2000 4:01:01 AM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 78607

Well, I don't like your post, jhelmers. It just shows up too many of my shortcomings -g-. long reply---> I'd say there's still room for more appreciation in CCK. But (dang!) I didn't buy at 3 so I'm reluctant to put money on it now at 5 either. Crown Cork is a company with a tremendous history - I surely hope they can get their businesses back to where they were when they were so respected for their financial and business acumen. LMG/A. I don't follow this one. I do know that it's somewhat related to T, and I've just sold my losing position in T. I believe the sum of the parts total for T is (even after this market decline)greater than the current price for T, and I believe I would've held for a while had T not cut the dividend. They announced that they were slashing their dividend; I see that as breaking an implied covenant with stockholders, so I've exited the position. In the cable television business, I've had CHTR this year (sold at a loss), and I continue to look for an entry point for CMCSA, a favorite of mine in past years. WCOM should recover. Unfortunately for me, I'm playing it with the ICIX buyout. ICIX stock I had at 30+ , mid 20 and 17 is now under 4. If the deal goes through, and if there's no price/terms renegotiation (or renegotiated with terms not too onerous), I'll recoup some of my losses if/when I get WCOM stock. NITE looks attractive. I'll have to look further. I have SWS which holds some NITE shares. I made the classic beginner's mistake -- it is amazing (and very irritating) to me how I can make the same types of mistakes again and again -- of buying SWS for a short term trade, and, having it go against me, turning the trade into a longer term investment. I have CLRN at much higher prices. A company I had was taken over by CLRN for CLRN stock. I kept the CLRN stock and have watched it drift ever lower since summer. And I passed up an opportunity to add to my position when it was suggested here couple of weeks back. It scooted from 12 (if I recall correctly)to 18; now it's back to new lows at 10. They're a leader in a growing business segment (IP telephony, with their first mover advantage); revenue is increasing rapidly. Problem (for me)is they are not making any money, yet. I'll hold my small amount, and I am considering just adding a bit more here to average down on the position. ALV, I don't know this one. HABK looks like a wonderful opportunity. I'll have to look further. At first glance it's just what I'm searching for. If it's a company that primarily focuses on financing trade with Central/South America. That would make it a competitor of BLX, a stock Mike Burry and I owned and discussed here maybe 3-4 years ago. I slipped up on BLX and sold too quickly and at a loss (believe I got scared out of it during Asian debacle in '98), and I've been kicking myself since. And looking for a good reentry point. (I missed a good buying opportunity with BLX again in Dec. of '99). Price relative to financials for HABK looks MUCH better than for BLX. (BLX has a solid reputation with customers and analysts, and a good history for delivering results - HABK may be a relative newcomer in the business.) These bank financings are a niche market where business relationships count (that is my impression anyway), and because their loans are somewhat complex (imo) but very short term in nature, there is lessoned chance of monetary devaluations/defaults, but good profitability potential. all just my opinion I've been wrong many, many times (as you can easily see) Paul S.

To: jhelmers who wrote (11634)	12/22/2000 5:09:13 PM
From: Terrapin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 78607

Hi John, I am currently holding LMGA. I bought TCI Cable (TCOMA) which spun-off TCIVA which was then merged with Liberty Media as a consequence of the TCOMA/T merger. So if you thought valuing LMGA was difficult try holding onto it as it is transmogrified over the years. I shouldn't complain since it has been very profitable on paper but I see now that I should have sold earlier this year (as with everything). The assets appear valuable and the management (John Malone) is shrewd and intelligent. However, I have no idea how much it is worth. If you learn anything I would love to hear it. On another note: is anybody interested in COMS for the spin-off play? Until today COMS was trading close to the cash in the till. Granted they will not be profitable for another 2 quarters if management is to be believed but the spin-off may be worth enough to make up for the uncertainty. Thoughts? I own a medium position currently most of which I bought in the last two days. Happy Holidays, Terrapin