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To: Ilaine who wrote (50719)12/22/2000 11:24:15 AM
From: SeaViewer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
CB,

The US saving rate has been negative for many months. How long can consumers sustain such shopping binge? That's why I doubt the rate cut will have as much impact as the last one.



To: Ilaine who wrote (50719)12/22/2000 11:29:29 AM
From: Ilaine  Respond to of 436258
 
U.S. Factories Busier, Spending Up in
November

By Glenn Somerville

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. factories were
busier last month and consumers kept pushing up
their spending, the government said on Friday in
reports that showed the gradually slowing economy
still has underlying strength.

The Commerce Department said the value of new orders for all types of
long-lasting durable goods, from refrigerators to airplanes, was up 2.3
percent to a seasonally adjusted $210.94 billion last month.

It did not fully recover October's 6.5 percent drop in orders but did beat
Wall Street analysts' expectations for a 1.6 percent gain.

Separately, Commerce also reported that consumer incomes were up 0.4
percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $8.44 trillion last month,
recovering from a revised 0.1 percent decline in October.

That enabled shoppers to boost their spending by 0.3 percent to $6.905
trillion in November after a 0.4 percent rise in October.

Spending Not Drying Up

So far, anecdotal reports from merchants suggest the key holiday sales
season from Thanksgiving through Christmas has been a lackluster one. The
government report, however, showed that spending was not drying up.

``As long as incomes remain ahead of inflation, the consumer is going to have
more money to spend, more things to buy, and that's going to keep consumer
sentiment from declining by too much,'' said economist Paul Christopher of
A.G. Edwards and Sons Inc. in St. Louis, Mo.

Some of the spending was supported by draining savings, a development that
analysts warn increases a slowing economy's vulnerability to a sharp
downturn if jobs become scarcer.

The personal savings rate was a negative 0.8 percent in November -- a
record low -- after being down 0.7 percent in October.

Federal Reserve policymakers decided this week that the biggest risk the
economy faces now was of a sharp downturn, signaling they were preparing
to cut interest rates next year.

Most of the pickup in November factory orders was centered in
transportation products, especially aircraft. Transportation orders that
account for more than one-fifth of monthly business were up 9.1 percent to
$48.12 billion after plunging 17.3 percent in October. It was the biggest
monthly rise in transportation orders since a 41.6 percent jump in June.

But without transportation, November durables orders gained a slim 0.4
percent after dropping 3.1 percent in October.

Christopher of A.G. Edwards and Co. said the orders report did not imply a
recovery in manufacturing, which looks set to weaken in coming months.

Manufacturing Still Sliding

``We think manufacturing still has a ways to fall further,'' he said.
``Fortunately that doesn't have to portend a decline for the overall economy
since the service side is still doing quite well.''

Bond prices were lower after the reports were issued, with the 30-year U.S.
Treasury bond off 11/32 point to yield 5.44 percent and the 10-year note
down 9/32 and yielding 5.08 percent. Trading in stock and bond was
expected to be light in a pre-holiday session.

Commerce said that orders for electronic and electrical equipment rose 4.5
percent to $40.03 billion last month, partly recovering from an 11.4 percent
October drop.

Shipments of durable goods, taken as a gauge of current factory activity,
weakened by 1.2 percent in November to $207.34 billion.

That followed a 2 percent decrease in October and implied that many
businesses were experiencing a gradual fall-off in factory-floor activity in line
with the slowdown in national economic activity.

dailynews.yahoo.com



To: Ilaine who wrote (50719)12/22/2000 2:19:19 PM
From: Don Lloyd  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 436258
 
CB -

...As the economy has sharply slowed, the
manufacturers have been hit hardest, in part because consumers have
grown far more hesitant about making large purchases like appliances,
cars and personal computers. ...


Large purchase - personal computers ???

Only if you have to pay shipping on the defective returns.

Regards, Don

PS - Do you have an opinion on Christy Whitman as EPA head?



To: Ilaine who wrote (50719)12/22/2000 5:30:22 PM
From: Mike M2  Respond to of 436258
 
CB ho ho ho the bigger the boom the bigger the bust. Lenders are beginning to sober up and realize that they made many stupid loans to stupid people to do stupid things. Not very smart -vbg- The Fed will relive the experience of pushing on a string. Mike