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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dan3 who wrote (23216)	12/22/2000 2:54:41 PM
From: bacchus_ii	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

I have bookmark your very good post and will come back oftentimes in 2001 to look at it, validating if the fundamental still hold for my long position in AMD. Thanks Dan. Gottfried

To: Dan3 who wrote (23216)	12/22/2000 3:03:51 PM
From: Chung Lee	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Dan, >>>A looming factor is the big change in PC infrastructure costs that started happening this week. Integrated motherboards for the Duron / Athlon started showing up at retail (I'm sending this from such a system) and this means that there is a huge change the costs seen by the market for Celerons vs. Durons. When integrated MBs for AMD become widely available, Celeron will be finished, VIA is playing footsie with Intel re KM133, I hope Sis becomes a stronger supplier of AMD chipsets to give VIA a run for the money, in the long run AMD can not afford to trust VIA due to conflict of interest, since VIA has large ambition to become bigger CPU player, it is almost like AMD depending on Intel to supply chipsets, NUTS.

To: Dan3 who wrote (23216)	12/22/2000 3:11:16 PM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 275872

Dan3: "Intel has a business model that is based upon $200 ASPs minting money for them and $150 ASPs leaving them as an OK business and they are facing a competitor who's business model is based upon minting money at $100 ASPs and being an OK business at $75 ASPs. Intel has to be very, very, very, careful about letting the perceived value of its mid range and high end processors drop, and it seems to be happening anyway. AMD's $100 ASP business plan looks like an almost inevitable success story while Intel's $200 ASP business plan looks doomed." Doesn't look like you are too far off the mark on your assessment from my vantage point...Throw in AMD's outstanding flash division which is virtually sold out through Y2001 and the exisiting high probability of "inevitable success" in the microprocessor division, the overall company "inevitable success" factor increases further!!!

To: Dan3 who wrote (23216)	12/22/2000 4:30:14 PM
From: 5dave22	Respond to of 275872

Dan, I just wanted to acknowledge your well thought out post. I don't agree 100% w/your thoughts on pricing but I see where you are coming from. I'm still neutral on AMD, primarily because their marketing folks are idiots. Considering the current cost to performance ratio of Duron/Celeron - Athlon/PIII, they should have sold EVERY LAST CHIP they produced in Q4. The fact that ANYONE buys a Celeron any longer (it is lower, but the amount of Celerons sold is many times more than unsold Durons) is entirely attributed to a poor marketing effort by AMD. And that includes the crappy name, too. $25 million of 2H00 advertising would have been a great investment for AMD and AMD investors. Regards, and happy holidays, Dave