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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Allen Benn who wrote (8949)	12/22/2000 3:22:32 PM
From: Allen Benn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10309

In the spirit of the holidays, let us take a few minutes to reflect on the bigger picture – and commercially for me to make a few plugs for some exciting upcoming technologies. As the NASDAQ tanks, with WIND’s short interest exceeding 5 million shares as of a couple days ago, and the economy ostensibly sinking into oblivion, there is life at the end of the tunnel. The next era of computing and communications really is gigantically larger than anything witnessed so far by mankind. Remember a couple of years ago when we talked about the need for sensors and actuators to make hidden computer useful? Well, not long after that, I and mainly others funded a neat MEMS startup by an impressive engineer/entrepreneur along with his Stanford professor. (MEMS stands for MicroElectricalMechanical Systems, and unlike nano-technology is viable today for many types of sensors.) Crossbow xbow.com is growing nicely with the help now of VC’s, and one day should be ripe for an IPO. Yes, Virginia, there one day there will be IPO’s again. What you might find interesting is Crossbow’s leader Mike Horton’s view of a connected world: Click on “Crossbow’s Vision Series” to read another visionary statement about the world that not only Crossbow anticipates, but is consistent with a WIND’s “smart, connected devices” view as well. Another technology key to the future of smart connected devices is FLASH on steroids. We need less fragile, cheaper non-volatile memory that scales to greater densities and speed than what is available today. IBM and Infineon recently announced a joint development in which they expect a 25-year effort by IBM to develop viable magnetic RAM to bear fruit around 2004. Ramtron is claiming success for its ferroelectric thin films, in what it calls FRAM. Licensing deals with Infineon and Toshida give credence to FRAM’s potential as improved FLASH memory. However, look for a newly formed private company, Ovonyx, to steal the show and get to market with a scalable, cheap, durable non-volatile memory that remakes the FLASH memory market, enabling increased functionality with lower prices for smart devices. Ovonyx (see ovonyx.com) is the brainchild of Tyler Lowrey, an ex-CTO of Micron Technology (MU), and a top FAB engineer. A year and a half ago, Tyler made a deal with ECD, the owner of Ovonix, the thin film technology used for making all ( I believe) rewriteable CDs and DVDs, to form the Ovonyx joint venture. With the help of Ward Parkinson, his mentor and founder of MU, Ovonyx secured a project with Lockhead Martin to develop radiation-hardened memory for the Air Force, and enticed Intel to license and help develop Ovonyx Unified Memory. Private capital was raised from Intel and others to help fund the venture, which is why I am particularly hopeful it will prove successful. Intel seems to like the prospects for OUM: intel.com , apparently with some justification, or else there wouldn’t be a new licensing and development deal with STMicroelectonics: ovonyx.com The point of this post was to raise spirits as WIND’s stock crashed by pointing out that technology is developing apace, and the new era of computing can look forward to important technological catalysts. But by the time I finished writing it, the sun came out, and everything looks rosy. Go figure. Oh well, have a happy holiday anyway. Allen

To: Allen Benn who wrote (8949)	12/24/2000 10:31:54 AM
From: Peter Church	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10309

>>>Any attempt to rely on market or stock timing indicators is mathematically naïve>>> Allen, That statement is a little dogmatic, don't you think? To me, it's all a matter of probabilities and increasing odds in an uncertain world. Your style of fundamental analysis is based on future projections which can't be proven in advance either. The fact that in 4 out of 4 times in the last year WIND has rebounded strongly off of 30 increases the probability that it will do so again. This is not deductive science. But, it does suggest to me that WINd (the stock) is being controlled mostly by technical analysts and traders. In this situation, it pays to look what their crystal balls are showing them. As they say, in the short term the stock market is a voting machine; in the long term a weighing machine. Voting, we know, is full of passion, fury and treachery. Not that you can't be passionate about weight too. You can play it either way, but you can't get away from risk and uncertainty. Thanks for your brilliant work and for starting this very informative thread. Happy Holidays to all from Mexico!