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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (39126)	12/22/2000 4:49:37 PM
From: Grandk	Respond to of 42787

In this environment, I wouldn't rule that target out. I definitely feel it will be lower than were it closed today. Happy holidays, ~Jason

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (39126)	12/23/2000 2:04:31 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

I am already seeing a lot of bullish talk everywhere and how soon people forget. I am on guard mostly for FA reasons. Next week, OPEC is going to meet and most likely vote to cut oil production. This will not help matters as this will increase costs for companies doing business, act as a tax on consumers and business and will add inflationary pressure on consumer prices. Allan Greenspan is headed to California to bail out a couple utilities that have a few billion in debt that is about to blow up. How people think this is a positive, I have no idea. early Egg Nog sipping??? This is basically LTCM 1998 with a new name. Will this cause a interest rate easing. Maybe in an under the table hand shake agreement for getting banks to float some credit and bail them out but it won't be right away as that would be too obvious. I see this whole mess as the tip of the iceberg we all knew was floating out there and have talked about here for months. There are tons of bad debt out there and it is going to resurface again and again over the next few months. Third, today's rally was not a healthy rally. Healthy rallies don't shoot stocks up 25%, even from over sold levels. Healthy rallies also don't give up the entire day's gains in a matter of seconds then recover them all again a few minutes later. Stock price action like that should serve as a warning that drops like that could happen again except not bounce next time. Today was a thin whipsaw and short covering rally. I expect to see substantial down side in the next couple weeks. The US Dollar fell again today and though I have a short term over sold on it, a rate cut may under cut the dollar more. This makes our equities even less desirable for foreign funds. Not a good sign as it points to money leaving the US and going back to Europe. This is all my first impression and I am not saying we fall hard Tuesday. In fact I think odds are good we could have an up open and then from there, it still favors up into mid week. I haven't looked at my charts much so I don't have a good read on things yet. There is however substantial risk of a downturn at any time. Another thing people seem to be ignoring is yes, we rallied 7% today in the NASDAQ but we also were down 5% for the week. Any other time, people would be sweating bullets over a 5% drop. I guess that is why I call them J6P rallies on Fridays. They seem to work and lull everyone into thinking things will be OK and forget about the other 4 days. It appears to have worked again. Good Luck, Lee