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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (50869)	12/22/2000 4:40:02 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Though the comercials are net short the SPOOS they are net long the NDX and increasing that position. Your thoughts?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (50869)	12/22/2000 4:41:02 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

thanks. i keep on wondering though about the profits accruing to the commercials on their shorts: is this derivative related, hedging, or smart timing? Who is making the dough and who is eating the oppositre trade: J6P alone?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (50869)	12/23/2000 1:38:44 AM
From: timers	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

heinz.. is your prediction taking into account the possibility that a bottom won't be reached for up to 6 months to a year from now and we will have a hope rally when everyone says this appears to have been the bottom and rates start cutting and so on. then it rolls over again later and goes way lower? or are you adamant that it has to have the huge selloff and bottom all in one big down lastin four or five months from sept top on nas and bottoming in spring? the fear seems to be rising to me of a selloff. isn't that what could begin the opposite and move up and away from threats while we get propaganda and rate cuts? just seems kinda tidy to have the nas wrap it up so soon and so quick here while the dow hasn't even started. where's the uncertainty in that? It could be argued that if we start up now....that many will be able to be convinced that this was the bottom due to the fed and cuts for at least awhile causing real uncertainty. seems we might have just enuf of a low to make many hesitant to short the nas rally so quick as if we hadn't had the last week selloff. what you think?