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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Goutam who wrote (23239)	12/22/2000 9:28:17 PM
From: Dan3	Respond to of 275872

Re: I guess they want to keep it quiet to not to affect the prices on the other boards that still use the old KT133. Good point (and good catch!). I think everybody in the business is afraid that the channel will be clogged with old product and that the OEMs won't buy anything until the existing inventory has moved - and that once new products are announced the existing inventory won't ever be sold. This applies to both Intel and AMD products. My faint hope is that AMD is stalling some significant product announcements until the channel clears. (wishfull thinking, I'm sure) Things do seem to be surfacing with little or no fanfare from both AMD and Intel. The Duron 850s, the Celeron 800/100s, the SiS boards, and now the VIA boards. The SiS board I'm using supports 266MHZ FSB Athlons (but not DDR memory). Some of the benchmarks that have surfaced recently show that for some applications (but not others) the 266 FSB is as important as DDR. There were supposed to be a number of new mobile products from AMD about to be announced, then came word that the channel was overstuffed with existing inventory, and AMD got very quiet about new mobile products. It may be that neither Intel nor AMD will be moving many mobile parts this month or next, and that when the OEMs start buying again in late January, a significant share of those sales will be AMD's. (pure speculation) H2 of 2001 is still a question mark, but with the binsplits of Durons and Athlons and the new low cost / high performance platforms coming out H1 of 2001 is looking damn good for AMD. AMD only needs a quarter of the market to have blockbuster quarters and Intel is still 6 months away from anything that can do more than slow AMD down a bit - if that. H2 of 2001 Intel hopes to move ahead of AMD, but an awful lot has to go right for Intel, and go right without any delays, for that to happen. Until Intel has high volume copper, on .13, using low-K junctions, they can't compete with AMD. Depending on the speed of Intel's ramp and AMD's ramp of .13 SOI, the bulk of Intel's capacity may lag AMD indefinitely. OTOH, given the way the market always views the two companies, AMD stock price may lag Intel's equally indefinitely. Earnings and market share seem to be a "don't care" when it comes to evaluating AMD stock. Regards, Dan