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Pastimes : Nasdaq Bottom? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (6)	12/22/2000 11:09:12 PM
From: Shtirlitz	Respond to of 73

I think the Nasdaq is going to zero and will be delisted, because US is going out of business and will file for BK one week after Merrill Lynch downgrades it. On a serious note, I'm starting to think that this bear market, that has lasted for almost 9 month, is coming to an end. 1. Fed will cut, 2. Economy is still growing, only at a normal pace. As opposed to unusual 5-8% growth. Heck, most of the world can only envy 2-3% GDP growth. 3. Energy prices are on decline. 4. Inflation is moderating. ( I don't really beleive in official numbers, and I think we had inflation, but now its moderating, and its still pretty low). 5. Consumer confidence is still high, due to high employment. I can already see light at the end of the tunnel. I'm not saying that we'll see a new strong bull market forming here, but I'm not seeing continuation of the bear market either. Unless there will be serious detirioration in the economy I'm not expecting this market to go much lower. IMO we are as low as it gets this time, or darn close to it. I think its pretty safe to start putting money back in good companies with good management and solid fundamentals. P.S. I heard a rumor that some analyst from CSFB will be downgrading Christmas. But since Christmas is still in business, I wish you all Happy Holidays. :)

To: sea_biscuit who wrote (6)	12/23/2000 2:52:54 PM
From: Mr. Aloha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 73

I agree with most of your assessment, though I think the final bottom will probably be closer to 1700-1800. I do think we will get that 1000 point rise in this bear market rally... Once we bottom out, I may just buy and hold for a while in retirement. I'd love to not even have to think about trading and get 12-15% a year (though over 20% on my portfolio today alone was nice). I wouldn't call that tortuous, though many spoiled buy & holders from the last few years who came to expect at least double that will just be trying to recoup losses. Some of these people were laughing at me when I said last March that I'd rather have my money in a money market fund making 6% at that time than in tech stocks. If you don't lose a ton on the way down, 12-15% a year is really a nice annual return...