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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: J.T. who wrote (5790)12/23/2000 4:13:41 AM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 19219
 
U.S. Economy: Home Heating Costs Sap Other Spending from Bloomberg:
By Vincent Del Giudice

Washington, Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Higher energy costs depressed consumer spending on cars and other goods in November and a measure of consumer optimism this month fell to a two-year low, signs the economy may slow further in the months ahead.

Consumer spending increased 0.3 percent after a 0.4 percent rise in October, the Commerce Department said. Excluding inflation adjustments related to higher costs for electricity, gas and home heating oil, spending rose 0.1 percent. That was the smallest gain in eight months and followed an October rise of 0.2 percent.

``We have no cash from stock market gains to offset the cost'' of oil and natural gas, said Christopher Low, chief economist at First Tennessee Capital markets in New York. ``Consumers must either borrow, or spend less on other things.''

The University of Michigan's index measuring consumer confidence fell to 98.4 in December, the lowest in more than two years, from 107.6 in November. That represented an 8.6 percent drop in the index, the largest since November 1991, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Separately, orders at U.S. manufacturers for durable goods recovered some lost ground in November, led by a surge in bookings for civilian aircraft, the department also reported today. The 2.3 percent rise followed a 6.5 percent decline in November.

The spending report also showed incomes rose 0.4 percent in November after a 0.1 percent decline in October, and analysts said that news was encouraging. ``We still see decent gains in wages and salaries,'' said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors Inc. in Holland, Pennsylvania. ``Income growth is the key measure to determine whether we are headed into recession, and people have the funds to spend.''

Stocks Rally

Stocks rallied as investors looked for bargains among technology companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index rose for the first time in eight sessions, gaining 177 points, or 7.6 percent, to 2517.02. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 148 points, or 1.4 percent, to close at 10,635.56. Treasury securities also rose. The 10-year note rose 1/8 point, pushing down its yield to 2 basis points to 5 percent.

The latest government statistics show the economy cooling. Federal Reserve policy-makers warned this week of further ``weakness,'' suggesting the slowdown may more than desired and could threaten the record expansion, now in its 10th year.

After raising interest rates six times between June 1999 and this past May to keep the economy from overheating, the central bank's latest statement suggests Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan may push to cut interest rates as early as next month to stem the decline.

Gross domestic product expanded in the third quarter at a 2.2 percent annual rate, the weakest growth rate in four years and less than half the 5.6 percent pace of expansion in the second quarter.

A Limited Slowdown

Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News currently expect fourth quarter growth at a 2.7 percent annual rate -- still far from a contraction.

``So far, this recession is largely limited to Wall Street and Detroit as Main Street is still in reasonably good shape,'' Naroff said.

The auto industry is showing clear signs of slowdown. Ford Motor Co. cut its first-quarter North American production plan 17 percent from a year earlier because of slower demand. ``It's clear that U.S. economic growth is slowing, and surveys of consumer sentiment point to lower levels of spending in the future,'' said Martin Inglis, vice president of Ford North America.

The factory report showed that orders for transportation equipment rose 9.1 percent in November after dropping 17.3 percent during October. This was due to a 78.4 percent jump in orders for commercial aircraft after a decline of 58.6 percent a month earlier.

Excluding transportation, orders rose 0.4 percent last month after dropping 3.1 percent in October. Excluding October, the November level of non-transportation orders, at $162.8 billion, was the lowest since April. Overall orders were up 1 percent from a year earlier, and shipments were unchanged.

Fed Concerns

The spending report's numbers confirm what Federal Reserve policy-makers noted on Tuesday: that rising energy costs and weakening share prices were damping growth. ``The drag on demand and profits from rising energy costs, as well as eroding consumer confidence, reports of substantial shortfalls in sales and earnings, and stress in some segments of the financial markets suggest that economic growth may be slowing further,'' the Fed's policy-making Open Market Committee said Tuesday after announcing it voted to hold the overnight lending rates banks charge each other at a nine-year high.

Americans can expect to pay as much as 50 percent more to heat their homes with natural gas or oil this winter, the U.S. Energy Department says. Supplies aren't keeping up with demand, as the U.S. braces for one of the coldest winters in the past decade. Natural gas for January delivery is at a 10-year high and heating oil prices are 50 percent higher than last December, industry experts said.

Electricity prices are rising partly because companies that generate power for sale to utilities rely on natural gas to fuel power plants.


Best Regards, J.T.



To: J.T. who wrote (5790)1/4/2001 2:09:50 PM
From: J.T.  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 19219
 
GM, Ford Dec. Auto Sales Fall 15% on Weather, Economy
from Bloomberg

By Alison Fitzgerald

Detroit, Jan. 3 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and DaimlerChrysler AG sold fewer vehicles in the U.S. last month as consumer confidence slipped and winter storms kept buyers from showrooms at the end of the industry's record year.

GM's sales of North American-built cars and light trucks fell 18 percent, while Ford and DaimlerChrysler's Chrysler arm posted 15 percent declines. The three biggest automakers in the U.S. lost market share to Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co., Volkswagen AG and some other overseas-based makers with fresher vehicles and more affluent customers, analysts said.

The industry's seasonally adjusted sales rate fell to 15.4 million last month from 17.5 million in December 1999, marking the lowest rate since August 1998, Autodata Corp. said. Light-vehicle sales fell 8 percent to 1.24 million in December, the industry research group said.

``The blizzards and miserable weather in a lot of parts of the country in the last couple of weeks made this even worse than we had predicted,'' said Burnham Securities analyst David Healy.

Still, a torrid pace earlier in the year helped automakers sell 17.4 million light vehicles in 2000, breaking the record 16.96 million sold in 1999, Autodata said based on reports from 16 automakers and estimates for three others.

GM, Ford and Chrysler lost 6 points of market share in December to 61.4 percent, which analysts said was a record low. Asian-based makers gained 4.5 points to 30.9 percent, while Europeans makers rose 1.5 points to 7.8 percent, Autodata said. The shift was fueled by December sales gains of 14 percent at Toyota, 2.7 percent at Honda and 17 percent for Volkswagen, all adjusted for one less selling day last month.

For the year, U.S. automakers' share fell 2.9 points to 65.6 percent. Asian automakers finished with 28.1 percent, up 2.3 points, while European makers added a half-point to 6.2 percent.

Detroit-based GM's shares rose $2.63 to $54.81. Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford rose 81 cents to $25.13. DaimlerChrysler's U.S. shares rose $1.84 to $44.14.

2001 Outlook `Pale'

DaimlerChrysler said it would temporarily idle several factories for a week or more this month in the latest move by an automaker to cut production because of slowing demand. The Stuttgart, Germany-based company said it will close five plants next week and one the week of Jan. 15. Three will be idled the week of Jan. 22 and five will closed the last week of January.

The closings will reduce production by about 50,000 units and 30,000 workers will be laid off for at least one week. The company's Chrysler arm lost $512 million in the third quarter and an estimated $1.25 billion in the fourth quarter.

Industrywide U.S. sales during the first few months of this year will look ``pale'' compared with the sales pace in early 2000, when economic growth and consumer confidence were strong, said Bob Rewey, Ford's group vice president for global consumer services and North America.

Ford is planning for an industrywide annual U.S. selling rate of 16 million vehicles in the first quarter including heavy trucks, a 15 percent decline from the year-earlier period, Rewey said. Excluding heavy trucks, the rate would be about 15.5 million. The automaker expects the industry to sell 16 million to 16.5 million total vehicles in 2001.

General Motors economist Paul Ballew said GM is forecasting the industry will sell about 16.1 million light vehicles in 2001.

``The biggest factor is the contraction in consumer confidence,'' said John Casesa, an auto analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. The Conference Board's consumer confidence index, based on a survey of 5,000 households, fell to 128.3 last month from 132.6 during November, for the lowest reading since December 1998.

General Motors

General Motors' full-year U.S. sales fell 1.3 percent to 4.95 million vehicles, hurt by a 2.3 percent decline in car sales. For December, sold 330,176 North American-built vehicles. Sales domestic cars fell 17 percent, while sales of minivans, sport utilities and pickups declined 20 percent. Total sales including imports and heavy trucks fell 18 percent to 337,972.

``Out weaknesses in the year always start with low (priced) cars,'' GM's Ballew said. ``It's been our No. 1 Achilles heel in the last 10 years.''

Foreign competitors were offering good products at low prices, making the sector difficult, he said.

U.S. sales of all of General Motors' brands in December fell with the exception of Saab, which rose 34 percent, and Saturn, which increased 5 percent. Leading the declining brands for the month was the company's Pontiac division, which fell 28 percent to 31,340 vehicles.

Ford Results

December's decline caps an otherwise record year for Ford, the maker of the best-selling sport-utility vehicles and pickups, the Explorer and F-Series. For the year, Ford sold a record 4.20 million vehicles in the U.S., up about 1 percent from 4.16 million last year.

Ford's 15 percent sales decline in North American-built vehicles, to 259,411, last month was greater than the 12 percent drop analysts forecast. Car sales fell 24 percent while truck sales declined 7.1 percent. Total sales including imports and heavy trucks fell 14 percent to 275,756.

U.S. sales of the best-selling Explorer sport-utility fell 22 percent in December to 27,702 units, continuing a slide that began after a Firestone tire recall in August raised safety concerns. U.S. sales of the Mercury version of the Explorer, the Mountaineer, fell 49 percent in December to 2,243 vehicles.

Sales declined in December of every Ford, Lincoln and Mercury car model except for a 36 percent increase in the Ford Escort, to 6,692. Among its foreign luxury car models available in December 1999, only the Jaguar XJR, XK8 coupe, XKR coupe, XKR convertible and Volvo S40 posted gains last month.

DaimlerChrysler

Sales at the Stuttgart, Germany-based company's Chrysler arm declined 15 percent to 167,672 in December. For the year, sales fell 4.4 percent to 2.52 million from last year's record 2.64 million.

DaimlerChrysler said a weaker market and higher inventories are hurting the industry. In December, its U.S. minivan sales fell 34 percent from the year-earlier month to 25,939 vehicles. Sales of all models that were available in December 1999 fell, except for the Chrysler 300M car, Town & Country and Voyager minivans, and the Dodge Ram Wagon and Ram Van. The Chrysler Voyager minivan, which was just being introduced in December 1999, sold 3,100 vehicles in the U.S. last month.

The PT Cruiser car-small truck hybrid introduced last year sold 10,944 units in December.

Customers

Foreign-based automakers continued to benefit from fresh products, such as the Toyota Tundra pickup, and the slowing economy posed less of a deterrent to their buyers, analysts said.

``The Joe-lunch-box guy, the people who are hourly type people by and large, are going to represent a larger portion of the big three vehicles than the imports and transplant names,'' said Jim Gillette, an analyst with IRN Inc. an industry research group in Grand Rapids, Michigan.

``The foreign car buyers have always been a little higher educated, a little more secure in their jobs and therefore less concerned about the economy.''

December sales rose 14 percent to 133,993 vehicles for Toyota, the fourth-biggest automaker in the U.S. Its Camry sedan was the best-selling car in the U.S. for the fourth year in a row with sales of 298,123, helped by a 23 percent gain in December. Toyota-brand vehicles rose 12 percent while Lexus luxury vehicle sales rose 31 percent.

For the year, Toyota's U.S. sales rose 9.7 percent to a record 1.62 million vehicles.

Other Automakers

Honda said sales in the U.S. rose 2.7 percent over December 1999 to 88,035, as sales of the Accord rose 12 percent. For the year, Honda's sales rose 7.6 percent to a record 1.16 million, fueled by a 25 percent increase in the sales of the Odyssey minivan and other light trucks.

Nissan Motor Co. posted a U.S. sales decline of 5.2 percent in December, while Japan's third-largest automaker said sales for the year rose 11 percent to 752,088 units. Mitsubishi Motor Corp. said U.S. sales fell 5.8 percent in December to 24,172, while its full-year sales rose 20 percent to 314,417.

Hyundai Motor Co. said U.S. sales last month rose 37 percent to 17,523 vehicles, led by increases in its Accent car and sales of its new sport utility, the Santa Fe. For the year, Hyundai's U.S. sales increased 49 percent from 1999.

Volkswagen said U.S. vehicle sales rose 17 percent in December as the German automaker boosted sales in the U.S., its second-largest market, with its Golf and Passat models. For the year, Volkswagen U.S. sales rose 13 percent to 355,479.

Bayerische Motoren Werke AG had its best December in the U.S., selling 20,720 vehicles, an increase of 65 percent over the previous year.

South Korea's Hyundai Motor Co. said U.S. sales last month rose 37 percent to 17,523 vehicles, led by increases in its Accent car and sales of its new sport utility, the Santa Fe. For the year, Hyundai's U.S. sales increased 49 percent from 1999.

Automakers' December percentage changes are based on the daily selling rate. There were 26 selling days in December 1999 and 25 selling days last month.


Best Regards, J.T.