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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Softechie who wrote (44046)	12/24/2000 10:45:02 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . Looking Ahead Into the New Millenium . . . . Softechie, Here's a "hint", as you call it. . . .think back to other Christmas weeks. . . companies do not report earnings, guide or warn during the final week of the year. This is simply due to everyone on Holiday vacation. And furthermore, even if a warning were to come out on say, Tuesday, by an unscrupulous company trying to pull a fast one. . . who would be there to throw fear into the markets? Certainly not the Individual Investors who will be basking in the warmth of Holidility. This is the time for Daytraders, Momo Traders and Swing Traders to come out from the woodwork and make some serious coin. Sometimes you must face the facts. Next week belongs to the Individual Investor. Now come the first 4 trading days of January, that may be a very different story. I expect a 4DML to start on a big gap up on January 2, 2001 in a similar way as we tracked the 4DMLs after Labor Day. When the biggest players return, they will want to slam the market, like they always do after Holidility. And we will have turned back to the short-side by selling into the exaggerated gap up on Jan 2 or EOD on Dec. 29. To all. . . . As for earnings warnings and disappointing reports, they will begin again January 2nd and could hold things under wraps for the better part of a month. And more importantly, the weaker than expected retail sales figures for December will further throw ice on the economy. But, the hope of interest rate cuts at the Jan 17th FOMC and a the continued softening stance is bound to kick start a real rally in January, beginning on or about January 22nd, in my estimate. However, certain "Best-Of-The-Best" stocks will begin to rally in the second week of January and will continue to rally EVEN AS THE MARKETS APPEAR TO BE SELLING OFF. So don't be blinded by the COMPX or Dow index. Make lists of stocks you wish to track. Throw them into portfolios for easier tracking. And follow them carefully to get a better picture of what is really happening in January. We call this a Stealth Rally. By the third week of January, earnings season will have ended. No more dark clouds will be hanging over the markets by then. All the cats will have been let out of their respective bags. And Greenspan will either be back on the side of the bulls with a rate cut. . . or he will be eaten by them!!! [And frankly. . .after last weeks disappointing announcement most of us don't care which.] In my opinion, February and March look quite bright for pulling out of the rut that was created by Greenspan tapping the brakes too hard back in May. I could see a rally extending from Jan. 22 through about mid-March. . . [But again the best stocks will begin rallying about 2 weeks sooner than the indices] Some sideways action on extreme volatility the final two weeks of March. . . with Bears sinking their teeth back in and gaining full-control by April 2, 2001. . . after a short hibernation. And taking back all of 2001's gains before the end of April. . . .then we go back to our light volume Summer Bear market, which moves mostly sideways in a very tight trading range, with a brief summer rally beginning sometime in late June. . . . and perhaps another 2 weeks of Holidility come mid-August. . . These markets are very seasonal. . . however, recently the seasonality has been used against the Individual Investors in the maximum way possible. This has led to the Biggest Profits EVER by Wall Street brokers and Investment Bankers, during 2000. They could not give themselves enough bonuses and raises. . .or pass around enough champaign as they suckered Individual Investors to buy worthless IPO companies, a large amount [anyone know the percentage?] of which are now PENNY STOCKS. . . and headed for the pink sheets. The wealth effect which spread through Main Street in Anytown, USA during 1998 and 1999 has been sucked up by Wall Street during 2000. This has left Main Street in a Negative Wealth Effect and Wall Street in a Greed Effect. And the one thing we know about Greed, is that it is extremely addictive and overwhelming. So much of my prediction for 2001 is based on "Reading the Greed". By studying the history of "what works" for Wall Street, combined with expected events, it isn't that difficult to draw up a skeleton view of the future of the markets. . . using the Greed Effect as a ruler. . . and the FED as a compass. The Individual Investor/Trader has little to no effect on the way the markets move. Except!!! During Holidility!!! >>VBG<< Best wishes all. . . .Merry Christmas Eve. . .and Happy Holidays to everyone! Rande Is PS> To our Christian friends, remember this about today. . . . . [tell your kids] "The redemption at the cross was the reason for the birth" . . . I'll spare the accompanying sermonette. >g<