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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Spekulatius who wrote (87505)12/23/2000 9:25:44 PM
From: Joan Osland Graffius  Respond to of 132070
 
Spec, >>If anyone is intersted I will post writeup of three or four speculative picks for next year, all of them biotechs.

Please do.

Joan



To: Spekulatius who wrote (87505)12/24/2000 1:16:29 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Respond to of 132070
 
Spek, Merry Christmas to you, too. This thread the voice of sanity? Sir, I resent that. My rubber room resents that. My uncrooked jackey resents that. <g>

Definitely post your bio specs.



To: Spekulatius who wrote (87505)12/24/2000 7:09:11 PM
From: Spekulatius  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 132070
 
To all: Biotech stocks I - GZMO

I have 4 criteria, to separate the good from the bad (and ugly) Biotechs:
1) Strong management
2) Competitive advantage in research
3) Leverage
4) Sound cash position

The 4 Biotech's I will introduce to this thread meet the above criteria, IMHO

#1 Genzyme Molecular Oncology (GZMO) 9 7/8$, 150M$ market cap.
GZMO is a tracking stock for the cancer research activities of GENZ, a first tier Biotech company.
GZMO is an early stage company and most likely years away from having any product on the market. However, the company has an impressive array of technologies and IP that will make it a long term winner:

a) SAGE/SPHERE and antigen discovery.SAGE is a proprietary technology to analyze the difference in gene expression between different samples (for example healthy and diseased cells). GZMO uses this technology to understand the genetics of cancer and to find antigens, which can be used as targets for immunotherapeutic cancer drugs (antibody and vaccines).
GZMO has been able to partner the antigen discovery program with Purdue Pharma. The total amount of possible milestones may amount up to 330M$.
biz.yahoo.com
GZMO retains the right to develop vaccines, based on the antigens found in this discovery program. in addition to the Purdue effort, GZMO intends to leverage and partner its antigen discovery capabilities into the field of infectious diseases next year. The size of this program could match the size of the Purdue partnership.

b) Cancer vaccines: GZMO has 5 different cancer vaccines in clinical trials (Phase I/II) GZMO has an exclusive lisence on the fusion technique. An experimental vaccine produced with the fusion technique has produced one of the highest response rate to date ( 75%) in a trial conducted by a German research group. GZMO wants to move this program into the clinic next year

c) P53 lisence. p53 is a tumour suppression gene, which appears to be missing in most cancer cells. GZMO has licensed the rights to P53 to Schering-Plough, which has a Phase II/III gene therapy trial ongoing.

d) Preclinical stuff Anti-Angiogenesis research, MDM2 protein licensed to Merck, aaATIII protein from the renowned Folkmann. This is early stage research that may or may not produce a big winner.

Why do I like GZMO? While many companies develop immunotherapeutics and Vaccines underway to fight cancer, GZMO's approach is the most comprehensive. Because of the power of SAGE, this company has a high chance of being successful. GZMO also has access to the capabilities of the GENZ mothership, if needed. The stock can easily be a 10-bagger (and of course as easily go to 0). GZMO has enough cash at hand till Q3-2002. Due to the affiliation with GENZ, GZMO management tends to be conservative. More information can be found in the SI GZMO thread. I consider a stock price of less than 10$ very attractive.