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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Topannuity who wrote (65102)	12/23/2000 1:42:40 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Respond to of 99985

<Arch Crawford has just sent out an e-mail proclaiming that December 26th will be one of the greatest up days in history and that next week will be one of the great up weeks in history ... He expects an EXPLOSION to upside.> Wonder if his prediction will be better than the one he made December 14: "This indicator is NOW breaking Above it's September Maximum = 'It doesn't get any better than this!' INTERMEDIATE TECHNICALS are gaining strength. There may or may not be one more dip to dislodge incipient Bulls. However, it is clearly a period to implement further intermediate accumulation ... We remain 200% LONG (Using Full Margin) in the newsletter." Message 15033594 Wonder how many margin calls he and his followers got last week? Cheryl

To: Topannuity who wrote (65102)	12/23/2000 3:13:42 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Crawford's call for an upward "EXPLOSION" could be right, as there's certainly a bullish interpretation available for recent price action on the Nasdaq. At the least, there are good reasons to prepare for a short-term rally. 1) Even after Friday, the index remains heavily oversold: Put any oscillator you like on the weekly or daily chart, for instance, and you'll probably get low readings that have rarely if ever been seen before. Weekly and daily volume may also suggest a capitulatory washout. 2) Reflecting the same situation, a rapid but not abnormally accelerated (especially given amazing volatility levels) re-tracement to the post-Labor Day downtrend line (i.e., still leaving the downtrend theoretically intact) would already imply a 400 to 500 point gain. Breaking the downtrend (i.e., without necessarily implying more than initiation of a trading range) over the course of a week or two would imply even greater gains. 3) The possibility of an at least intermediate upturn is also reflected by candlestick analysis: As I suggested at the time, the daily chart produced an inverted hammer on Thursday, a classic bottom reversal pattern when confirmed. Friday's action - gap up to "shaven head" (close at high of session) upthrust was about as pure a form of confirmation (at least in one day's trading) as you can get, and the three-day Wednesday-Thursday-Friday pattern strongly resembles a classic "morning star." Friday also included penetration (albeit limited) of resistance established by the 12/19 low. The weekly candlestick suggests a hammer. Though it's not a perfect one by any means (the lower shadow should be longer or the real body should be shorter), it comes very close, much as in the significant bottoms in the weeks of 5/26/00 and 10/9/98, as well as the minor bottom of 9/04/98 (initiation of 1-month aborted rally). It's worth noting that picture-perfect weekly hammers, or heavily exaggerated ones like the weekly stick of 4/07/00, show a worse recent record than the less nearly "perfect" ones mentioned. Either way, in the majority of instances, perfect and near-perfect hammers on the Nasdaq have a good record signaling at minimum a diminution of the trend. 4) The other major indices, S&P 500 and Dow, though potentially more vulnerable, appear to be in shape to hold relatively firm at least for a while: On the daily chart, the Dow appears to be crossing up through the middle of its recent trading range. The weekly chart offers a similar reading. The S&P put in a "rickshaw man" on its weekly chart, but stopped just short (almost exactly) of breaking through significant upward resistance at 1305 - a number its stopped at four times since October, and which corresponds to the last minor high prior to 99-00 rally. Its downtrend remains steep and relatively recent: If it fails to break through or at least hold 1300, I wouldn't be surprised it at least re-tests the recent low in short order. Even, however, if both the S&P and Dow roll over, the Nasdaq has not been trading with them with any consistency. Among other factors, sector rotation could allow for the Nasdaq to rise while the larger market catches up on the down side. 5) The bad news looks to be in, for the most part, while good news appears to be in the offing: Earnings warnings and the like are now pretty much expected, although reactions to the JDSU rumor on Friday and to the CSCO "news" the week before showed how jumpy traders remain. The Nasdaq appears to have priced in a hard landing/recession, possibly amidst heavy tax-loss selling. Traders and investors can now start thinking again about soft landing/rate cuts/January effect/fresh liquidity etc. On this note, it's been stated that there's no period on record in which stock prices in the U.S. have not responded positively to an accomodating interest rate environment. That this response, at least in a durable form, may not come for many months (and possibly from lower prices levels) may not prevent market participants, in their usual over-emotional way, to rally anyway. It may turn out to be whistling past the graveyard, but that's hardly unprecedented. It may also turn out to be entirely rational. I'm just stating the above as a reasonable reading, not as a prediction. On Tuesday and subsequently, I would remain alert for re-tracements that exceed 50% of relative gains or rallies that fail at key resistance levels. Either could betoken severe stop-gunning drops, or resumption of the still bearish predominating trend. As often in the recent and not-so-recent past, investors, as opposed to traders, are faced with the choice between missing the beginning of what could be a major recovery and resumption of the long-term bull market and risking devastating losses if the "once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunity" turns into a great headfake prior to the "third phase of the bear market." For my own part, I'm content to stick to short-term trading, and am only just beginning to contemplate possible long-term positions. As I write this, CNN's Moneyweek analysts are talking about "infallible buy signals" for the larger market.

To: Topannuity who wrote (65102)	12/23/2000 8:56:19 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

Come on LG, let's have it; you are Arch Crawford! <gggggggggg>

To: Topannuity who wrote (65102)	12/23/2000 10:30:34 PM
From: Benkea	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

"Arch Crawford has just sent out an e-mail proclaiming that December 26th will be one of the greatest up days in history and that next week will be one of the great up weeks in history. He says this is one of his most important predictions he's ever made. He expects an EXPLOSION to upside." Crawchford put out a similar "most important prediction he's ever made" about "make sure you tell the one's you love that you do before it's too late" just before the market went to the sky! He's was calling for armegedon. It went down as one of the all time most ridiculous, most incorrect, clown predictions on record! Perhaps he'll out do himself again :-)