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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (39188)	12/24/2000 1:06:43 PM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 42787

Les - Thanks for that post. I forgot to figure in the new "honesty in disclosure" rule. Now that they can't tip off the pros first then tell us weeks later, we could get more of the bad news up front now. Good Point. It is still early and I am not through even half of my stuff, but here is what I see so far as my WAG subject to change as I go through my stuff later this weekend. Up Tuesday-Wednesday, then fairly flat for the next week or so. Expect a retest of old lows then pre Fed rally. That FOMC meeting makes or breaks us for the immediate short term there after. No cut, we make new lows, 25 point cut, pullback then whipsaw trading ranges again. 50 points and we could have a pretty decent rally until the spring earnings warnings start. Regardless, my mid term look is simple. Earnings are going to get worse for the next 2 quarters... period. Any rallies to stupid levels will just be setups for huge drops when the realization of bad earnings finally hits. I never underestimate the greater fools and think the next 3-4 months are going to be great for longs and shorts both. Let the fools bid the stuff up then short with impunity when reality strikes next quarter. There will also be some real bargains for the longs in the coming months. It will all be a matter of picking targets and waiting. By next spring/summer, there will be good companies beaten down on earnings but with good futures as the big slow ship turns around and starts going up. That is when to buy. Right now I still think we are in denial that earnings will slow. The words come out of our mouths but we are still rushing to beat the guy next to us to the buy in. Next summer we won't be in as much of a rush. I saw this quote over on the MB thread which I thought was pretty good, In the chapter on Jim Rogers, he paraphrases Rogers as:""In bear markets, things first decline to reasonable prices, then they fall to cheap prices, and then they reach unbelieveable giveaway prices. After that things get really bad, and everybody gets cleaned out." Good Luck, Lee