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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (65113)	12/23/2000 2:16:29 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Perhaps a better question would be, does this constitute a "burst" or a nine months leak?

To: Les H who wrote (65113)	12/23/2000 2:18:34 PM
From: marginmike	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LES one good day and everyone is talking soft landing again. Man do I have a bridge to sell you! I am 99% cash now, scared of ST rally and scapteical of its possibilities. Almost bought the close on Thursday, but didnt. It was stupid, I knew the bearishness was way to thick. I believe Recessions are great ways to become richer, and would rather be conservitive then churning my acount. I am amazed that people are still in denial that there will be a recession. It freightens me. My dad on thursday was singing the blues and by Fridays close he was already bullish again????? I will reload puts at naz 2750-2850. I am shorty the banks now but I may be early to that party.

To: Les H who wrote (65113)	12/23/2000 8:53:49 PM
From: Gary Burton	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Les--my impression based on historical examples is that when manias burst, they go BELOW where the mania part started....btw..maybe Arch will be right and there will be an explosion starting Jan26. but when I look at a host of tech stocks this weekend, almost all of them give me the sense that they need one last low--eg MSFT and on and on and on...hey maybe Arch is talking about the SPX and INDU?---btw(2)..http://www.thestreet.com/p/comment/wrongrear/1226514/html btw(3)--Hays' actual words on Fri 830am were.."I now believe that Phase 2 of the Nazdaq's bear mkt is 'essentially' over and 'after a few weeks of scares,fits and starts' will experience( a more durable Bounce)..Today(Fri) is a very strong seasonal period.I'm not going to plunge in today..I will give you one warning.I do not expect the market to change its stripes entirely...I will take the next few weeks and continue to drip my money into the market" We shall see!