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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (65121)	12/23/2000 4:00:45 PM
From: KyrosL	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

How can you assume that Europe will be fine if America has a massive recession? A deep recession in America will cause a depression in both Europe and Asia. America has much better chances than Europe to recover quickly from a recession in terms of demographics, public finances, and cultural attitudes. If you expect a depression in America, I think you are better off buying guns, freeze dried food, and a bunker in Montana, rather than Euros. Kyros

To: marginmike who wrote (65121)	12/23/2000 6:22:46 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Marginmike wrote: I am getting more bearish every day. I am thinking about taking all my dollars and buying Swiss franc's and Euro's. The dollar dies, then inflation, then massive recession. Bank poots and Forighn denominated bonds will be the only SAFE investement. Stocks and US bonds will be anhilated. But what do I know? Good question. Let's review an earlier post where you disclosed some of your assets. Mark at one point in 99 I had my life savings in QCOM, and QCOM calls. It was arround April 99. Ended up with 100,000 shares. Kept buying all the way up. Late 99 started taking chips off the table, and by jan 2000 was up 13 million in Qcom alone. Sold it all in Feb albeit not at the top, still made a nice Seven figure, never have to work again figure. It was a once in a life time oil strike. Of course the money I had used to buy Qcom with was made buying SUNW in 96 ;) so maybee it was a litle skill! In any case I started shorting stuff in March. I have had a once in a life time year! You never have to work again. Depending on how much of that Qualcomm sale you have left and based on the share price range for Qualcomm in February ($120.x - $148) when you sold the rest of it - you could more than easily ride out the rest of your days simply living on interest. If that's the case, why your continued interest in the 'action' and gloom and doom concern posts? Why not take the interest payments and simply go out and enjoy life from now on? But what do I know? BB

To: marginmike who wrote (65121)	12/23/2000 6:36:15 PM
From: Dennis O'Bell	Respond to of 99985

There's an awful lot of infighting and bickering among the countries in the euro, this will counterbalance relative weakness of the dollar. They're all heavily socialist which is simply anti business, one has to expend a lot of extra energy to get things done since at every turn there is always someone trying to "mettre des bâtons dans les roues". Someone who succeeds in an enterprise in France would be a spectacular success in the US. I suspect other european countries are similar. Don't be misled by spectacular growth figures from Germany - East Germany had to come from literal third world status on a fast track since the wall came down. World finance is so interconnected (the amount of money transacted daily via the SWIFT interbank network is mind boggling), that like it or not, if the US does spiral into a depression, we'll bring the rest of the planet with us. No grin on that, but it's not the most likely scenario. Swiss franc might be the safe haven though, like they say in France "point d'argent, point de Suisse" :-) They have a habit of surviving bad times, it's a strange little country. fwiw, this xmas shopping season has been the best in France in years, things are finally turning around a bit there.