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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (9913)	12/23/2000 6:26:46 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Respond to of 12823

"At this rate, by the time the actual network rolls out, we'll have a 64K network when it is moderately congested and worse when over-subscribed, as the service providers will need to be in order to run the numbers and justify the buildout." True. Unlike other kinds of networks, such as frame relay and ATM, where oversubscription errors could be compensated by simply adding more fiber-based channels, here there is no such salvation. When the spectrum supply hits a wall, it stops. Higher bit-to-hertz efficiencies help to some extent, but streaming multimedia will put those improvements in check. Facilities that support WAP-based applications and email are no match for the demands that will be made by the streaming multimedia apps. Some possible solutions that come to mind might be for service providers to filter on the application type and restrict hogs to throughput caps and specific kinds of use, or to increase the density of antennas and effect greater frequency re-use. Keeping it simple means keeping the traffic loads down. Using restraint, in other words, for the greater good. This is nothing new. It's an old Internet principle that has been lost to time. These possible forms of triage are akin to what some cable ops do (and are planning to do) today, for the same reasons. Otherwise, the real gains that could evolve from next generation wirlesses could be relegated to a tragedy of the commons.

To: Raymond Duray who wrote (9913)	12/24/2000 1:10:56 AM
From: Lance Bredvold	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Ray (and Frank); A couple of your statements lead me to make my presence known on this thread. I believe you have participated in QCOM discussions in the past and the fact that you are aware of the CDG lends confirmation to my belief that you have been aware of what is happening in the CDG camp. So the statement that 64kbps is the most we are likely to see in wireless for some period of time ahead seems to say that you believe IS95B in Korea either does not exist or does not perform as advertised since that system I have been supposing to be operating for, is it nearly a year. My question then, is: Do you have evidence that it is not in existence or not operating to advertised rates? In the following post, Frank, you discuss the limitation of spectrum and suggest that many uses will overwhelm the availability of spectrum. I agree in general but would like to suggest that the current availability has proven more than adequate for existing voice service in all but the densest markets. My evidence for this assertion is a QCOM spinoff named Leap Wireless which has deliberately chosen to enter the densest sections of medium sized markets and offer all you can use voice. Their CTO, Mark Kelley has asserted that they are currently capable of handling as many as 20% of the entire population with existing technology and offering as much voice as you wish to use (with some limit on using the phone for baby monitors and such). He further asserts that they will be able to handle 40% of the population with 1X technology about ready to roll out now. And that is in 10mhz of spectrum. In actual practice Chattanooga is the oldest system and is actually providing service to about 10% of the population in the central part of the city. To the best of my knowledge they continue to offer the service without restriction to anyone who wishes to take their offer. Current experience is that the average user takes about 1000 minutes per month. None of the above contradicts what you said in my opinion since clearly if many people choose to surf the web 300 hours a month or download videos via the wireless phones they are apt to find there is just not the capacity available. On the other hand, uses like short messaging service and e*mail and driving instructions or even looking at a single picture by people who need to do so should be no problem with the 160mhz or so (I haven't checked the total in PCS and cellular frequencies but suspect it is in that range) available in every city. LWIN is offering in 10 cities so far, Salt Lake being the largest. I don't know Nashville or Knoxville so I don't know which is densest. I understand that carriers in your New York have been bumping up against spectrum constraints, but I would suggest that problem is primarily limited to inefficient users of spectrum and older networks which are not easily upgradeable plus New York is the most difficult of all situations. Sprint's CTO has stated they have no problem in NY and that the most heavily used base station in their system is at one of the airports and uses a maximum of 13mhz (out of 30 mhz which I believe they have available). How is Sprint's service in NYC? Do they get bogged down during rush hours and at busy intersections during traffic jams? The current auction displays very little aggression on their part to obtain more spectrum it seems to me and that confirms the adequacy of what they have perhaps. I guess, having a couple of minutes of edit time left, that my opinion is that the shortage of applications in the US market plus the concentration on achieving high coverage by operators has been the primary reason data rates have not been increased on the CDMA side. The operators have been operating 50% faster (14.4 kbps) than their competition and have been capable of offering IP capabilities for a couple of years though they are just now beginning to promote higher speeds or internet access. I know of at least one fellow who has been using his Verizon wireless phone as a modem for his laptop for over a year. I have been following this board for over a year and this is the first time I felt I had something to offer which might be worthwhile to you guys. Thanks for the high quality discussion you've maintained. Lance