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Pastimes : The New Qualcomm - write what you like thread. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Verve who wrote (2434)	12/24/2000 10:34:31 AM
From: slacker711	Respond to of 12236

Deutsche Telekom has signed letters of intent stating infrastructure buildout in 2001 and commercial deployment in 2002. I think it gets even more interesting than that....Tero has talked about subscriber growth guarantees being put into these contracts. Particuarly Nortel.... thestreet.com The real nightmare of the most aggressive vendor-financing deals involves something called subscriber-growth guarantees. The most aggressive 3G vendors have landed deals that actually promise the operator buying the equipment specific subscriber-growth benchmarks. This means that unless an operator hits certain subscriber goals, say 200,000 3G customers by December 2002, the network provider has to pay damages for every subscriber missing from that goal. These contracts also typically provide penalties if networks aren't operational by their promise dates. At least some of these companies truly believe that both infrastructure and handsets will be ready to go prior to IJ's 2003 timetable. They have even put their money where their mouths are.... Slacker

To: The Verve who wrote (2434)	12/26/2000 2:40:36 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12236

<Consider that which exists to exist and that which does not exist to not exist, and recognize things just as they are. With such a frame of mind, one will have divine protection even though he does not pray. > Hojo Nagauji (1432-1519 <Deutsche Telekom has signed letters of intent stating infrastructure buildout in 2001 and commercial deployment in 2002. What I'm suggesting is WCDMA may be further along than we all think. Sure, we can argue that these announcements don't mean a thing, but the number of them and the players involved I think can only lead to one conclusion - the cdma2000 battle may be lost.> Signing letters of intent is nice, but China signed up with Irwin Jacobs nearly a year ago. We are not a LOT further ahead. The difference between cdma2000 and W-CDMA is an arcane world of standards negotiators which I don't believe is going to amount to a hill of beans in the end. They are so similar now that I doubt it really matters to QUALCOMM which is chosen [without a name, I wonder who among the service providers or thread readers would know the difference]. QUALCOMM has produced an ASIC and sampling is to begin in a few months. So it's real enough, though still in the vapourware phase which I believe remains the main point of W-CDMA = a means to prolong the ascendancy of GSM and the vast profits which are being garnered by Nokia, Ericsson and co. They will stretch it out as long as possible. The pressure to act will come from Vodafone and co who have bid a fortune for spectrum. Taiwan announced a move to W-CDMA instead of cdma2000. NTT buying influence and the Europeans political pressure seems to be swaying a lot of people to what might yet turn out to be just another false promise. WAP was a lemon. GPRS is too! Vodafone is sitting here in New Zealand with their GPRS ready to roll but no handsets. It's a shambles. Sure, Nokia and co tricked everyone into buying GPRS and the frightened service providers who believe in incremental life, figure GPRS will be a 3G system, sort of, and good enough to see what demand will be like. It won't! They are failing again. EDGE will be even worse than GPRS. The Bleeding EDGE is not going to see the light of day. At some stage, the tsunami of real, all singing and dancing high speed It will take off and all will rush to climb aboard. It is so simple. People love the internet, but they will NOT pay a fortune for slow, tiny screens, accessible in only a few areas. With fast, cheap and universally available 3G Internet on a decent-sized screen, they'll come flooding in the hundreds of millions. WAP was no test. GPRS won't be either. I would NOT be surprised to see W-CDMA collapse like a house of cards, weighed down by greedy IP sellers who want 5% on top of the 5% which QUALCOMM is charging for cdma2000 or W-CDMA. The main basis of W-CDMA was to avoid QUALCOMM. They have failed, though they are still struggling to grab 5% somehow. They will fail at that too. 5% is a lot for something which works even better without the extra burden of W-CDMA ideas. They are hoping territorial advantage and a roaming disadvantage, with more expensive multimode handsets will swing it for W-CDMA. People will buy single mode W-CDMA rather than W-CDMA/cdma2000 dual mode phones. Well, that's the idea anyway [I guess]. Mqurice PS: Some comment here: Message 15082922 The term 'network effect' is being misused. The network effect is more the ability to communicate with other devices. W-CDMA and cdma2000 and landlines and Globalstar phones all can interlink. They form a voice network. They interconnect. The compatibility effect is valid too, but a much weaker version of the network effect. Roaming to somewhere where no service is available becomes part of the network effect. The cost of multimode will determine how much of a problem that is. The value of the internet is the number of connections. It doesn't matter which devices those are through or where connection can be made [so much].