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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Square_Dealings who wrote (65182)	12/24/2000 1:09:53 PM
From: KevinMark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>I have a different perspective<<< I'm not so sure that you do. My time horizon in my posts are typically for the short-term. Longer term, we do have a mess on our hands. Unfortunately, there's not going to be a technology boom to help pull us out, like the PC and cell-phone did much of the 90's. Basically, there's to much supply on the market of everything on the market. That will take sometime, before that is all washed out. >>>It's certainly not investing<<< I agree with that! Investors are the losers here, traders are the winners. We will be in a trading range for several years. Long-term bulls and long-term shorts at this juncture will not fair as well as traders will over the next 3-4 years, IMHO. The days of holding on to MSFT/INTC/CSCO and letting them run are OVER. It's a traders paradise now, up 500 pts one week, down 500 another. >>>I started some short positions in a few banks,drugs,and REIT stocks on Friday and I will add a few more on Tuesday morning<<< Maybe a little to early for the Bank bon fire, for the institutions will start spewing out their rosy forward guidance pictures in 2000, and 2001, but nevertheless, I agree with you here, banks are in trouble. But, what we'll see here in the next few years is the return of the "Mergers and Acquisition" game, similar to the 80's. As a matter of fact, it's already began. Therefore, one should be very cautious in shorting the little guy, because they will most likely be eaten by the BIG guy. Regarding Gold, I couldn't agree with you more. Institutions and the Clinton administration have purposely held down Gold for years, and I think this may slip by the Bush administration for the 1st couple of years. I've been calling for a short squeeze in Gold for 2001 and 2002 for several weeks now, and I think it will materialize. Goldman and Deutsch already had their clocks cleaned back in February(http://www.egroups.com/message/gata/362) by the spike in Gold, but that spike will pale in comparison to what spike I'm looking for by late summer. >>>I see buying stocks here as analogous to skiing in a high avalanche danger area right after a major storm. <<< We do disagree on this however. Shorts will have this Wednesday or Thursday to cover their positions, or they TOO, will be caught in a major avalanche to the upside. A 2-3 1/2 month rally, before another avalanche to the downside ensues. KM