To: Hawkmoon who wrote (2687 ) 12/25/2000 12:14:07 PM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3536 Actually, it might be beneficial to post that article on BOP issues:newaus.com.au The balance of payments myth By *Frank Shostak No. 133, 13-19 September 1999 The balance of payments data is considered by most economists and various commentators as the single most important piece of information regarding the health of the economy. According to the accepted view, a surplus on the current account of the balance of payments is considered as a positive development while a deficit is seen in a negative light. The deficit is viewed by almost everybody as a symptom of bad economic health. Subsequently, the popular theory maintains that what is required is a boost in exports and a curtailing of imports in order to reduce the deficit. This, it is held, will lead to improved economic health. The popular view maintains that it is the role of the government to introduce a suitable mix of policies which will guide the economy along the path towards a "favourable" balance of payments. In a market economy each individual sells goods and services for money and uses money to buy desired goods and services. The record of such monetary exchanges for any period of time is called a balance of payments. The goods and services sold by an individual could be termed exports, while the goods and services bought could be termed imports. In a free market economy individual decisions regarding the selling and buying of goods and services, i.e. exports and imports, is made voluntarily, otherwise it would not be undertaken. The emergence of an exchange between individuals implies that both expect to benefit. If an individual wants to increase his purchase of goods and services, i.e. lift his imports, he will have to earn a corresponding amount of money through selling, i.e exporting, his goods and services. The more he can earn through exports the more imports he can afford. Whenever an individual plans to import more than he exports the shortfall will be balanced either by running down existing savings or by borrowing. The creditor who supplies the required funds does so because he expects to profit from that. Subsequently, if the debtor, for whatever reasons, cannot honour his debt, this financial crisis is only of concern to the parties involved and of little importance to other individuals in the community. The current practice of lumping individual balances of payments into a national balance of payments is of little relevance to businesses. It is not Australia that export wheat, but a particular farmer or a group of farmers who export wheat. They are engaged in the export of wheat because they expect to profit from that. Similarly, it is not Australia that imports Japanese electrical appliances, but an individual Australian or a group of Australians. They import these appliances because they believe that profit can be made. While the national balance of payments is of little economic significance and is a sterile concept, individual or company balance of payments are real things that carry economic significance. For instance, the balance of payments statement of a particular company could be of assistance to various present and potential investors in that company. However, this is not the case with the national balance of payments. What possible interest can a business have with the national balance of payments? Will it assist him, in his business conduct? Since there is no such thing as Australia PTY Ltd that can be bought or sold in the market, the national balance of payments will be of no use to businesses. While the national balance of payments as such, is a harmless definition, the government reaction to it produces harmful effects. Government policies that are aimed at attaining a more "favourable" balance of payments figure by means of monetary and fiscal policies disrupt the harmony in the market place. This disruption leads to a shift of scarce resources away from the production of most desired (by consumers) goods and services, towards the production of less desirable goods and services. If the national balance of payments is an important indicator of the economic health, as various mainstream economists imply, one is then tempted to suggest that it would be a sensible idea to have balances of payments of cities or regions. After all, if we could detect the economic malaise in a particular city or region, the treatment of the national malaise could be made much easier. Imagine then that the economists in Sydney have discovered that their city has a massive current account deficit with Melbourne. Does this mean that the city of Sydney authority should step in to enforce the reduction of the deficit by banning imports from Melbourne? Luckily we don’t have inter-city balances of payments and it seems that no one is concerned with this issue. Yet the principle of our argument about the inter-city balance of payments is also valid for the national balance of payments. The concern expressed by most economists that an "unfavourable" balance of payments is bad for the economy is a baseless assertion. No individual or group of individuals can suffer as a result of a non-existent mythical entity. The only reason for suffering can emerge from a drop in incomes of individuals as a result of government tampering with the economy. The enthusiasm and excitement revealed by the financial markets towards the balance of payments data is not on account of its importance, but on account of the expected response of the government to the data. Economists and analysts spend much of their time guessing the likely response of the government or the central bank to a particular balance of payments figure. Various methods are employed to forecast the trade gap and its implications on the government’s reaction. Sophisticated econometric models are used to produce various possible outcomes. However, all of that is barely related to true economic fundamentals that from time to time awaken analysts by means of sudden shocks. The principles that we have applied to show the emptiness of the national balance of payments concept can also be applied to the national foreign debt. There is no such thing as national foreign debt since nations as such do not borrow or lend only individuals can do that. Consequently, if an American Jones lends money to an Australian Smith the entire transaction is their own private affair and is not of concern to any other. Both the American and the Australian are expecting to benefit from this transaction. Lumping individuals foreign debt into the national foreign debt doesn’t make any sense. What is this total supposed to mean? Who owns this debt? What about all those individuals who do not have foreign debt?, should they also be responsible for the national foreign debt? The only situation in which individual Australians should be concerned with foreign debt is when the debt is incurred by the government. The government is not wealth creating unit and as such derives its livelihood from the private sector. Consequently, every foreign debt government incurs means that the private sector will have to foot the bill some time in the future. It follows therefore that the only foreign debt that should concern various credit rating agencies is government foreign debt. *Dr Frank Shostak is chief economist with Ord Minnett Jardine Fleming Futures, Sydney. ****************************** I especially liked the linkage between inter-city trade deficits. I used to have a professor who was into "neo-colonialist" theory, but used to quote one of the, I believe, former Black Panthers who espoused this concept that imperialism existed within the borders of the US, stripping the resources of poor communities and exporting financial resources to the more properous regions of the country. But overall, in an emerging global economy, we'll see this kind of disparity in how global financial resources migrate to areas of greater safety and profitability. It could be permanent if certain regions/nations fail to get their acts together and spur their own internal economic growth.