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To: Joe Wagner who wrote (2516)	12/26/2000 2:25:33 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

OT: Energy and the Economy Hi Joe, Not sure how it's going to help BRCD and the brethren, but crude is trading at $22/Bbl in NYC today. OPEC is expected to cut shipments at the Jan. 8 meeting. it will be interesting to see if the supply of oil catches up and exceeds demand, It just did, last week. prices will weaken for some time. The way I see it, a 1MM Bbl swing in supply vis a vis demand causes a 50% swing in price. We have no world-wide mechanism in place to control these price swings, and the speculative markets tend to amplify the swings either direction. As far as the economy slowing, I see no evidence that this won't be the trend for at least a couple more reporting periods. The Presidential chaos, severe weather across the upper latitudes of the US, and the generalized impact of prior interest rate hikes will all tend to suppress GDP growth. I'm hoping for the Fed to move at the end of January. But I am not certain that they will. Happy New Year, Ray :)