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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gdichaz who wrote (37054)	12/27/2000 11:23:15 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Cha2, << You are indeed awake. >> I wake up from time to time. <g> << Are you saying that Tiger Woods is using a bag with GPRS and EDGE clubs? >> You have heard the expression, "Drive for Show, Putt for Dough"? Tiger used to do that. 3 Junior Amateurs, 3 Amateurs, one NCAA, and after winning 2 PGA events before he turned 21 he brought Augusta National to its ever loving knees. Sort of like cdmaOne/cdma2000. Explosive growth then crash and burn. Abject failure like Tigers sophomore year when David Duval blew him away (maybe a sophomore slump). Then Tiger learned to play all his clubs, and control his game, and the game he plays. Hopefully the same will happen as cdmaOne graduates to cdma2000. It has not happenned yet. CDG and QUALCOMM have a driver but can't control the other clubs. CDG and QUALCOMM have a nice seamless migration path for cdmaOne users playing the amateur tour. They are clueless in the big wide world of the global inititiative to migrate from 2G to 3G. cdmaOne/cdma2000 is intolerably weak in data services, voice roaming, data roaming, and cdma network to network interoperability, not to mention basic data services (SMS, EMS, MMS, fax), intra standard voice roaming, data roaming, billing for the above and network to network interoperability. For this reason they are being BLOWN AWAY by a player that has mastered the game and dots every 'i' and crosses every 't'. GPRS is like a Pitching Wedge. CDMA doesn't have such a tool. GRX is a Lob Wedge. CDG doesn't have a clue as to why one would need GRX. R-UIM. Only stupid people use these (said the Doctor). They are like a 2 Iron in Tigers hands. << to call GSM ubiquitous is a stretch >> What? Caxton says GSM is toast. 150 million new subscribers this year. How do you account for that? << Yes, there will be some sort of GSM base in many countries where there will also be a CDMA base, but the GSM base will be weak in comparison to the CDMA base in North and South America >> That changed dramatically this year didn't it?. << and many parts of Asia - where China is the swing player of the future >> China has 65 million GSM subscribers, rapidly deploying GPRS and they are the largest GSM market in the world. [still CDMA's last great hope for new region penetration] << And of course there is no GSM in Japan >> There is now. Two licensed GSM operators with test systems installed and both will be operational in 2001. << so "ubiquitous" is taking a bit of poetic license, no? >> Absolutely Not. 401 network operators in 161 countries on air with 420 million subscribers, with robust data services, voice, SMS, and high speed data roaming and billing worked out. North America covered like a blanket and LA about to be. I will comment back further on the dramatic changes in GSM in the Americas, that have recently taken place and their implications. These events and changes as well as CDG's and Qualcomm's penchants to continue to indulge in positive and negative hyperbole have dramatically influenced my thinking about the construction of the wireless portion of my portfolio. << Still curious what you know about speed limits in current spectrum. >> Little, other than that restrictions exist on the use of 2nd generation spectrum in virtually every country that has specifically set aside spectrum for 3G services. << You speak of it as fact in Japan >> It is a fact in Japan. << Are similar limits in place elsewhere to you knowledge? >> Yes. << This could indeed be a huge problem for 1xEV >> No Sh**. Particularly since licensees of IMT-2000 spectrum are unanimously choosing UMTS. 1xEV has 4 carrier supporters worldwide. All are existing cdmaOne users. Unlike 1xRTT phase 0 or W-CDMA, 1xEV is GREAT VAPORWARE. Fortunately several vendors are in early stages of commercializing it. << Re: GPRS, even giving it the benefit of the doubt, it is like using one of the new popular scooters IMO - a slight advance over walking, but not running, and not even close to a bicycle such as 1X, let alone the motorcycle that 1xEV will be. >> No. It is like movimg from a 9600 kbps modem to V.90 in one simple step and then a year later moving to ISDN speed. 1xEV will not be commercialized by that time. In 3 years GPRS will have 2 to 3 times the number of users as all flavors of CDMA combined. Wideband CDMA will kick in big time a year or two later. << Also do you expect EDGE to be a real competitor, and if so where and when? >> Nobody knows that answer, least of all me. The standard is waiting, however. - Eric -