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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (2716)	12/26/2000 3:08:21 PM
From: Henry Volquardsen	Respond to of 3536

Depends on what you are trying to hedge against and what your timeframe is Joan. I do think that the Euro got undervalued over the last year so would not be surprised if it did snap back somewhat. My concerns about the structure of the Euro translates more into a concern about longer term trends in relative economic performance. How that translates into currency values, on both a short term and long term basis, will be impacted by a lot of other factors as well. Btw I'm trying hard not to give a specific currency trading opinion :) I am not trading currencies on a daily basis any longer and don't want to give any one bad advice. I'm trying to keep my commentary longer term and theoretical. There are others who are trading actively and may have a better near term view. Henry

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (2716)	12/27/2000 1:25:37 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 3536

you would not buy the euro as a hedge against the USD? Only if you are nimble with your TA on the Euro. It's currently in some well defined "channels" that it must penetrate to the upside in order to sustain a long term rally. Short term bullish.. long-term still bearish: futures.tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com And as we're seeing evidenced with Japan already, there is a flight from the Yen as there are clear signs that they are headed back to recession; one that is likely to be more severe than in the past because of the slowing US economy. I see a similar future response with the Euro once it tops out on its monthly channel at around 92. Regards, Ron