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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Voltaire who wrote (27246)	12/26/2000 6:44:24 PM
From: im a survivor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

So, how does Naz react the next few days? TIA Keith

To: Voltaire who wrote (27246)	12/26/2000 7:21:28 PM
From: J Krnjeu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Hello Voltaire, thinkershaw Going all RMBS 2003 leaps Message 15069633 To: Uncle Frank who started this subject From: tinkershaw Rambus - FUD Clarification Below are three links which demonstrate the growing RDRAM momentum. The third link is a technical analysis written back in March of why DDR will not work. Basically, everything Rambus bulls have stated for quite some time, despite industry propoganda to the contary is true about RDRAM and about DDR. Now that the P IV is beginning penetration and actual benchmarks using high-bandwidth, optimized software are out there, the press is beginning to analyze the facts and not Jack Robertson or Sherry Garber propoganda pieces. Of course Rambus gets paid for DDR as well as RDRAM, but what DDR comes down to is an in-bred, mutant version of RDRAM which was an attempt to get around RMBS IP. It has failed on all accounts. But, as I removed margin from my account today, moving all my RMBS to 2003 LEAPS and finding other places to diversify into, the first article when it hit the boards this morning just gave me a rosy grin and caused me, for the first time ever to contact friends with a Very Strong Buy recommendation on a stock (I did have a Strong Buy on Rambus in January - but that was just board talk). So that is my opinion on Rambus, particularly at its current valuation. Hopefully the below three articles can help you all understand what those who have tried to decipher through the FUD for the last year or so have come to understand that is: (1) RDRAM is the only mass producable, commercially viable high speed memory solution available today and at least for the next 3-5 years; (2) That DDR is RDRAM but in an inferior form; (3) DDR has many difficulties that are not found in RDRAM; (4) The only real benefit to DDR is its supposed cost-benefits (note how DDR is estimated to be no more than 10-15% of the price of SDRAM in 2002. Well, Samsung is saying the same thing about RDRAM. If price of RDRAM = price of DDR, DDR has no business in being at all (except perhaps in some server applications and some existing graphic card applications). (5) DDR cannot do the job of not bogging down future processors, and in fact DDR 266 (the higher version, not yet commercially available to my knowledge due to electrical interference problems) only delivers approximately 40% sustainable bandwidth (that is 40% of its peak bandwidth rate), whereas Rambus delivers 90% sustainable bandwidth. The news coming out is confirming everything our technical analysis has concluded. Well just read and make up your own mind. Message 15064658 www4.anandtech.com Message 15063937 Tinker P.S. RDRAM and DDR are disruptive. Even if the semiconductor market for PCs slow (and DRAM is not RMBS' only business) the transformation from SDRAM to RDRAM and DDR (if DDR ever leaves its niche) will continue to line RMBS pockets at a tornadic rate as royalties for SDRAM are 50% or even less than royalties for RDRAM and even a smaller portion of royalties for DDR. Ie, it is a disruptive cash flow. One other comment: To all doubters out there, Rambus like QCOM demonstrates that unlike most other methods for choosing winning stocks, that gorilla investing does work. With QCOM, like with RMBS a disruptive and patently superior technology was detected. Non-techies like myself were able to substantiate this by following the value-chain and then over time re-confirming this as they slowly began to understand the technical realities of the standards battle at hand and the politics that ensued. We could understand this because of the framework that Mr. Moore laid out. So for the growing numbers of people I hear saying the Gorilla Game does not work anymore because everyone knows about it, I think your barking up the wrong tree. It is like saying Porter's Five Forces don't work anymore because every MBA in the world knows about it. Unlike technical market analysis, this is analysis of how high-tech markets uniguely work and which elements you want in the rare stocks (gorillas) you want to invest in. Valuation still matters, but using gorilla metrics allows you to expertly analyze the market for future winners and not just throw a dart at the wall. It does not matter how many people understand the game because the business fundamentals that determine gorillas are not investor expectation determined. Thank You JK