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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: hdrjr who wrote (82755)	12/26/2000 7:11:49 PM
From: Big Dog	Respond to of 95453

From Raymond James (Dec. 18) For the first time in over five years, winter weather appears to be approaching a more “normal” 30-year average weather. This return to more normal weather has exposed the substantial latent increase in underlying gas demand that has occurred with a surging U.S. economy. Even though exceptionally high natural gas prices are driving gas demand down and supply up, it is too little too late. So far, our gas supply/demand model is tracking right in line with reported AGA gas storage numbers. Unfortunately, this same model suggests that we are headed for an unprecedented gas shortage in the second half of the winter. The only solution to this pending gas shortage is price-driven rationing of gas that squeezes out anywhere from 5% to 15% of gas demand in the second half of the winter. Given our increased visibility in this impending debacle, we are raising our 2001 gas price forecast to $5.75 per Mcf. Even though this estimate is $1.50 above Street consensus, we still feel strongly that future revisions will be upward rather than downward. Since the market is not pricing this type of gas forecast into “gassy” stocks, we remain very bullish on North American natural gas weighted E&P and oil service stocks.