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Technology Stocks : Son of SAN - Storage Networking Technologies -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Wagner who wrote (2520)	12/27/2000 2:51:43 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4808

Joe, Not only are you an optimist, but you are attempting to put Humpty-Dumpty back together again, IMVHO. The tech bubble has burst my friend. Sorry to be breaking the news. Oil's not the issue for everybody in the upper Midwest. It's gas which is going through the roof. And in Canada and especially on the West Coast. There was a segment on one of the TV biz news shows this evening that showed the Castaic Brick Company of LA County. They are now paying $300,000/mo. to fire their kilns. Last year it cost less than $30,000/mo. Get ready for about anothet 200 layoffs. Real soon. All of California is reeling from the crisis in energy. Most manufacturing plants were seduced into the new spot market for power. And they're spending everyday waiting by the phone for the curtailment orders on their energy use. We aren't going to get out of this unscathed. There will be lots of bankruptcies, lots of layoffs and few people who'd rather speculate on a dying dream of a tech revolution, when they know that there's a big utility bill coming right up. As far as tax selling is concerned, you may be right that it drys up after the first of the year. But I don't see any catalyst to ignite much enthusiasm for the tech sector. Too much wind has come out of the sails. And the only good news will be PR blather, without real content or sincerity. New 401k, IRA and other pension money will be looking for safer harbors. Then the tax selling commences again in mid-March. Remember, OPEC meets Jan. 8 and they've already telegraphed the markets with the news that they want to cut back on production. My best guess is that they commit to this, the market adjusts briefly and that Saddam Hussein closes his taps on Jan. 21 in order to give GWB something to think about on his first day in office. <g> Timing, as they say, is everything. The only thing that will convince me that the markets could have a rally is an assertive move by the FRB. The first 25 bp move is already discounted by the market. Unless and until Greenspan moves 50 bp, I see the stock market continuing to swoon, albeit with a few sucker rallies to confuse the crowd. JMVHO, Ray