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Technology Stocks : METRICOM - Wireless Data Communications -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kenx35 who wrote (2991)	12/27/2000 8:38:01 AM
From: rrufff	Respond to of 3376

For those FUD sters who think that 3G will ever get here, check this out - It's December 5, but equally applicable today. zdnet.com How Your Wireless Dream is Getting Ruined Jesse Berst, Editorial Director ZDNet AnchorDesk The 3G Alphabet I'm no sports authority. But I know this: American football is one thing. European football is another. The problem with the wireless Web is the same, but worse. We can't even agree in the U.S. how third-generation wireless (3G) should operate. And the global referee, the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), can't get the parties to agree either. That means it will be a long time before 3G will live up to any of its promises. Theoretically, third-generation wireless is a universal standard for "high-speed" cell phones. It will allow data transfer of thousands of kilobits per second. Fast enough to deliver fluid Web browsing and streaming video. Compare that to second-generation wireless -- which most people now use -- with rates of 9.6 kbps, and you can see the benefit. The biggest benefit of 3G, however, is a shared standard for roaming across state and national borders. Unhappily, corporate greed means tomorrow's 3G will be as fragmented as today's cell-phone technology WHAT YOU'VE HEARD You can be forgiven for thinking we're on the verge of a startling revolution. The money is certainly flowing into ventures that would put high-speed data on your cell phone. Motorola figures there's a $50 billion market for 3G wireless in Asia. Click for more. British Telecom, Deutsch Telecom and others have spent so much for 3G licenses that some fear it threatens the future of telecommunications. Click for more. AT&T just got $9.8 billion from Japanese mobile giant NTT DoCoMo and will adopt the third-generation standard based on what is used in Europe as part of the deal. Click for more. WHAT YOU DIDN'T KNOW Some huge chunk of the billions being spent -- or gambled -- on 3G are going to be lost. The relatively few people now using second-generation technology for cell-phone Web access know that we've already got conflicting standards. What you didn't know is that the ITU was supposed to get the various global players to agree on a 3G standard. It failed as the players each tried to incorporate the little pieces that would benefit them most. For a nuts-and-bolts look at the competing specifications, go to my glossary on page 2. In the meantime, here's what will happen. Rather than a quick jump into the next-generation wireless, we'll get there by baby steps. Baby steps that will take years. The various companies behind the competing standards will fight it out until the market chooses a de facto standard. At that point, the companies and consumers left holding the equivalent of the Betamax will simply lose their money. THE RESULT For consumers, the result will have three main characteristics: Confusion -- Which standard is right? Higher prices -- Fewer competitors for any given standard. Incomplete coverage -- What works in one place doesn't in another. Click for more. With the situation that bad, you should do what American football players do when they're in a bad spot: punt. Is next-generation wireless the next or the last thing on your list of wants. Hit the TalkBack button and let me know, or go on to my Berst Alerts Forum and join the discussion