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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pigboy who wrote (15520)	12/27/2000 7:12:40 AM
From: Stocker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

Bulls back off from JDS Third quarter 'risky': Analysts cite slowing demand for downgrades Scott Adams Financial Post JDS Uniphase Corp. has been knocked down by a couple of one-time bulls the past two trading days. Optical component makers such as JDS have had booming revenue growth this year because demand for their components has outstripped supply. But the two analysts are now indicating that this market environment is easing. The stock was downgraded to "buy" from "strong buy" by both Raj Srikanth, analyst at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown, and George Hunt, analyst at Wachovia Securities. Mr. Hunt also cut his target to US$85 from US$170. In checking with optical components customers, Mr. Srikanth has found that lead times for orders of so-called passive components have fallen to four to five weeks, from about eight weeks. "This is a dramatic change in what we were hearing from optical systems vendors only two or three weeks ago and is the basis for our concerns," Mr. Srikanth wrote to clients yesterday. About 60% of JDS Uniphase's revenue came from passive components and modules last quarter, with the remaining revenue coming from active components and modules and non-telecommunications sales, he said. JDS Uniphase (JDSU/NASDAQ) was the second-most traded stock on the Nasdaq yesterday, gaining 15/16 to US$41 7/8. Word about the Deutsche downgrade was in the market on Friday, though the research note is dated yesterday. The Wachovia downgrade came on Friday. Both analysts have had "strong buys" on the stock since at least May. JDS Uniphase fell US$2 1/8 on Friday and had a bad week, falling almost 30%. The stock closed the week at its lowest point in more than a year and is now down 71% from its peak close of US$146 17/32 last March. Mr. Srikanth believes JDS can still meet Street expectations for its second quarter ending Dec. 31, but says the third quarter looks risky. Mr. Srikanth did not, however, cut any of his forecasts. An increase in the number of optical components suppliers and an increase in manufacturing capacity among the older suppliers could be leading to an easing in lead times, he said. Also, Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU/NYSE), which has been going through increasing financial difficulty, was one of JDS Uniphase's top three customers last quarter, Mr. Srikanth said. Mr. Hunt is concerned also about the weakening U.S. economy and increasing competition to JDS Uniphase, saying that pricing of optical components is falling faster than anticipated. He also believes that JDS Uniphase can meet expectations for its second quarter, but he cut his expectations for the second half of fiscal 2001 and for fiscal 2002. "Although we believe JDSU deserves [a valuation] as the industry leader in the optical components marketplace, the stock is still not cheap, and the stock market has historically been very hard on high multiple stocks following any less than positive news," Mr. Hunt said. Consensus is earnings of US19¢ a share for the second quarter and US21¢ a share for the third, according to First Call/Thomson Financial. Joseph Wolf, analyst at PaineWebber, kept his "buy" on JDS Uniphase yesterday, while admitting that the March quarter may be a challenge. But the challenge is "now reflected in the stock" and he suggests that now is a good time to start building long-term positions in the stock. While lead times for some of the more mature optical components may have eased, customers are switching to newer optical components, Mr. Wolf said.

To: Pigboy who wrote (15520)	12/27/2000 10:20:24 AM
From: pat mudge	Respond to of 24042

OT -- Pigboy -- What a great surprise to see your name here this morning. Your summary of Vertical Limit is right on. You nailed the "Ellison/Branson" comparison. Also Bass, the Texan who climbed the highest mountain on every continent, throwing money at the Nepalese and every other government that stood in his way. The photography was worth the price of admission. And if you go expecting no story whatsoever, you'll actually come out pleasantly surprised. I can juse see it being pitched to studios: "A James-Bondian meets Danielle Steele . . . :) Now, from Total Telecom: totaltele.com . . .While most analysts do not expect high-speed access to reach the levels of dial-up access until the middle-to-end of this decade, 2001 is expected to be a crucial year for Internet service providers to begin rolling out the first parts of their broadband, or high-speed, services. Always good to hear the big boys making plans. Pat