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Technology Stocks : WDC/Sandisk Corporation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: limtex who wrote (17690)12/27/2000 5:24:54 PM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 60323
 
Limtex,

I made a horrible mistake in January of 1997.

Everyone predicted AOL would go belly up by adopting
a monthly fee policy rather than an hourly rate.
Guess what? The stock plummeted. Everone hated AOL.
The early part of 1997 was their darkest day. Now
AOL is an Internet superpower. Why? Because the market
was so "elastic" that their infrastructure was overwhelmed
by new "flat fee" subscribers in very short order.
Conventional wisdom could not have been more wrong
at that point and those with the conviction to swim against
the stream have been duly rewarded.

How does that affect SanDisk???

I am hoping there is still some slight chance that flash
capacity isn't in oversupply right now, that people will
still buy PC accessories (digicams, MP3's) despite the
horrible economy, and that the two prongs of SanDisk's
business model that are relatively immune to flash reaching
commodity status (licensing revenues from raw chip manufacture
and licensing fees from '987) will continue to be a substantial
part of their net revenues going forward. These two arms
of their book of business have zero net costs other than a
portion of their R&D budget, a patent attorney or two, and
someone to strike licensing agreements with SNDK's competitors
and collaborators.

That is still the hidden secret here.

The Q4 earnings report may be pivotal for SNDK longs.

Aus