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To: marginmike who wrote (90830)12/27/2000 8:25:45 PM
From: Uncle Frank  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
>> I already have enough for myself, I hope everyone else equall fortune.

The heck with that. I'm planning on doing better than you <lol>.

>> My view is there is a VICIOUS recession in store in the next year. Ive been calling this since June-July.

Remember what Buffett said (Warren, not Jimmy):

Anyone who thinks they can predict the market shouldn't be allowed to talk to children.

uf

uf



To: marginmike who wrote (90830)12/27/2000 8:30:02 PM
From: Ibexx  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
Margin,

Let's talk about those stocks six months from now - and on their respective threads, not here.

Thanks,
Ibexx



To: marginmike who wrote (90830)12/27/2000 8:58:53 PM
From: Jordan Levitt  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 152472
 
<<My view is there is a VICIOUS recession in store in the next year. Ive been calling this since June-July. Back then People that I was nuts now they think I am being overly pessimistic. In 3 months they will think I am a genius. Good luck, and be carefull these are dangerous sea's you are navigating. >>

Hi Mike,

I disagree with your recession call for the following reasons:

1) Between 5% and 6% productivity growth

2) Fed lowering interest rates, most recessions start with a "choking off' of economic activity due to rising interest rates. Don't fight the Fed !

3) No signs of inflation anywhere ex of energy. None !

4) Oil has already rolled over in my opinion.

5) Once we get into 2000, and everyone begins to look at 2001 earnings, P/E/'s will appear to be further compressed.

6) 4% unemployment. This is very high by traditional measures; and quite un-recessionary.

7) Tax cuts...they are coming and coming soon. (Even in Canada ! We are your largest trading partner)That is going to help everyone pay down some of that large personal debt.

8) Global recovery. In this era of globalized trade, the U.S. has profited despite a weak Asia and Europe...they have nowhere to go but up.

9)While tech stocks were clearly over-valued, there are some compelling values out there. While their growth rates were seriously over-estimated (if estimated at all), they are now being under-estimated.

10)I am an optimist; you know, the bit about the glass being half full and all ?????