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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J.T. who wrote (5808)	12/27/2000 9:44:58 PM
From: Softechie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 19219

Did you increase your short position today? I think the rally is very trying and weak. There wasn't a real punch to make a dent to stick for next week.

To: J.T. who wrote (5808)	12/28/2000 1:03:17 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

The big surprise will be that the FED will NOT decrease rates in January as the market expects. Odds are strongly against it. First, inflation lags oil prices by one year. That means that inflation will not cool off until at least the beginning of March 2001 and probably not until October 2001. The Fed has cut interest rates only one time since 1991, and that was 1/4% on 1/31/96 to 5%. The next cut was not until 10/15/98 to 4 3/4%! My guess is that the Fed will stay in NEUTRAL until we see two quarters of economic data before lowering rates at the end of October 2001. J.T., looks like the market likes the year-end; I've always suspected they jack it up so that fee based PM's can charge a greater amount. Also, I have a theory that at year-end, the brokers mark-up their inventory to sell to the flood of 401(k) money that generally comes during the first week of January. After that, the market gets more normal. But in any event, I cannot see the S&P above 1360 under any circumstances. That's 2.33% upside potential. The risk is the re-test of the previous lows, or 1250, down 5.94% from the current 1328.98 level at 11:38 am CST. The MomentuMonkey model still shows us to be NEUTRAL, with a negative bias. The new target price is 1301, down 2.1%. Both Valuation and Momentum indicators are NEUTRAL.

To: J.T. who wrote (5808)	12/29/2000 2:49:40 AM
From: J.T.	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 19219

Rydex Total Assets Update for Thursday, December 28th: Regular Series: SPX Long - NOVA 550.2 Million SPX Short- URSA 231.5 Million NDX Long - OTC 1,951` BILLION NDX Short- Arktos 76.9 Million XAU Precious Metals 40.3 Million Banking 99.6 Million Biotechnology 537 Million Money Market 1,095 BILLION ******************************************* Dynamic Series (200% correlation) SPX Long - TITAN 99.0 Million SPX Short- TEMPEST 30.6 Million NDX Long - VELOCITY 158.2 Million NDX Short- VENTURE 33.8 Million ******************************************* Very little money movement in rydex today. This has to be a minor victory of sorts for the Bulls as they string another small gain for the day. SPX and BKX now up 5 days in a row. SPX was up 5 and NDX up over 4 points. Tomorrow again is seasonal day and favors the Bulls from historcal perspective. BKX closed at BKX 916 and continues to climb the mountain higher. BKX above double overbought levels now. Nothing more to write home about. Remain 100% Short SPX URSA Fund. Best Regards, J.T.