Mishedlo,
JNPR has now filled the most recent (and biggest) gap. It won't likely fill the two gaps (Oct. & early November) at the end of the topping pattern for a long time IMHO.
askresearch.com
Technicals show buy signals. But these technicals are not strong at this point (note declining OBV moving average, for example), as JNPR approaches the declining (or horizontal) moving averages in the 150 to 160 region. Chart resistance is first at 138, then 150, which is also where the 200 day SMA now sits:
stockcharts.com[L,A]DBCLYIMY[DB][PB25!B50!B100!B200!F][VC60][IUK14!LG]
These are the points I would look for technical weakening and reversal, 138 and then 150. Only if clear sell signals appear would I short JNPR, because the stock has a lot of momentum and could go against you hard very quickly. I would not anticipate, and a stop is essential, just above resistance.
There is not yet any indication from the 5 period EMA/8 period SMA on the hourly that JNPR is ready to fail either:
207.61.23.99
There is not a setup for a significant short squeeze, since open short interest amounts to 34% of the 10 day average volume. And this short interest (as of 11/10) has declined over the previous month, and is coming off an 18-month peak in open short interest. So, some short covering has already occurred, and short speculation has declined. I view all this as positive for a short position now.
biz.yahoo.com
From the options chains, there is tremendous overhead call-related resistance at the 125 and 130 strikes for near-term expirations, although January expiration is a ways away still, so this might not have a significant effect. The put/call is about 0.61 currently, in an area where it has been for over a month.
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BRCD looks to be a step ahead of JNPR, maybe a half day or so. It is now testing overhead resistance at 90, the site of the 200 day SMA:
stockcharts.com[L,A]DBCLYIMY[DB][PB25!B50!B100!B200!F][VC60][IUK14!LG!LB14]
Technical buy signals are still showing, but not strong, evidenced by the weak OBV, MFI, and declining OBV moving average for example. Stochastics will soon be in overbought territory nonetheless.
askresearch.com
The intraday chart also suggests weakening. The moving averages are not accurate in this chart:
askresearch.com
I would look for technical sell signals at the 90 test, and if this is successful, then the next test would be about 100, where I would again look for further evidence of technical erosion, and the appearance of sell signals. As with JNPR, I would not anticipate. It would be best if BRCD closed below the previous day's low before entering, and I would not enter short unless it did so. Because of the volatility, it would be wise to use a stop, just above resistance.
Open short interest has increased as of 11/10 over the prior month, and now amounts to almost two days' trading volume. This represents an 18-month peak in open short interest. So the chance for a short squeeze here is significant. This may be why BRCD is a bit ahead of JNPR---there may be some contribution from short covering here already.
After briefly spiking to about 1.00 in the last month or so, the put/call ratio has now declined some, and sits currently at 0.48. This has bearish implications, IMHO.
I don't know why there is a discrepancy between the put/call and the open short interest. But also there is enormous open put interest at the 80 strike for January expirations, and this will tend to provide significant options-related support. That is, as expiry approaches, there will be an effort from the options pits to try to get these to expire worthless, and so force BRCD to stay above 80. There is nearly as much overhead resistance from open call positions at the 100 strike, so IMHO the options pits may well be successful in reaching January expiration with BRCD closing somewhere between 80 and 100.
One more thing: JNPR's P/E currently sits at 498, P/S is 100, and P/B is 68; for BRCD, the P/E is 320, P/S 65, P/B 48. So compared to one another, JNPR is more overvalued. Institutions own 73% of the shares of BRCD, and only 43% of the shares of JNPR. So, there is probably less big money interest to keep JNPR afloat compared to BRCD. There has been more insider selling of BRCD than JNPR, though the amount of insider selling is probably not significant.
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Bottom line: Of the two, I see JNPR as a better short, but entry now would be premature.
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JMVHO.....................
Walkinghshadow
Edit: Others I've got my eye on include TXCC, CIEN, and or course, RIMM. Also, consider a long-term short position in X:
Message 15078975
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