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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sully- who wrote (27430)	12/29/2000 12:58:39 AM
From: lurqer	Respond to of 65232

it just may work out just as described It almost never does. <gg> My best guess is that we're in a manipulated panic sell phase of a massive brokerage house accumulation. If so, we could go lower if the Houses both want that and can pull it off. The only reason I add the latter is that it's a little hard to top a "downgrade" of Cisco when your goal is to induce panic selling. Soon after the "panic sell phase of a massive brokerage house accumulation", one is overwhelmed with the odor of charred bear meat. Since March a number of bears have grown "fat and sassy". They forget that in a bear correction, rallies are bull traps only until the last one which is a real rally that "looks like its ready to fail" but just never does - then it's too late. I fear that some bears are soon going to learn a lesson that some bulls learned starting in March. "It's what you hold onto that counts." Anything less than a month is something of a blur to me. My "bread 'n' butter" is the intermediate time scale (a few months). In February I didn't know when a market fall was coming - manias can go on and on. Given that the Fed was tightening and finally becoming convinced that the market fall was coming in the next three months, I went short at the end of February. In a similar vein, I now believe we'll be significantly higher in a quarter or less. One could make a bet similar to the one I made in February but now in the bullish direction. Note this doesn't say anything about the next fortnight or two. We may surge tomorrow, maybe at the end of January. The right positions in say three month options should prove quite profitable. Not as profitable as those that can predict with some assurance the next week and month. I can't. I'm more an intermediate term guy. As always on a FWIW basis and a BWDIK. Anyway Good Luck. lurqer