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To: marginmike who wrote (90865)12/28/2000 10:59:00 AM
From: carranza2  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 152472
 
Anyone who doesn't think things are slowing is nuts. Railroads have warned because shipments were lower in December. Ditto big trucking companies. These are, in my opinion, two of the best indicators of economic activity around.

The big question is to whether the slowdown will mature into a full-blown recession or whether we're looking at a phenomenon similar to what happened in 1991, i.e., a slight turn for the worst followed by strengthened economic activity and a bull market. I don't have the tools or the smarts to make that kind of call but I do see a lot of positive things out there like productivity growth, probable lowering of oil prices in '01, no out of control interest rates as the Fed eases in January and beyond, increased defense spending under the Bush Administration, and a not-so-tight labor market. All of these factors make me think that we will probably not have a recession or, if there is one, it will be short-lived.

BWTFDIK