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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rande Is who wrote (44323)	12/28/2000 3:08:21 PM
From: baddtiming	Respond to of 57584

NUFO starting to do that stair step thing:)

To: Rande Is who wrote (44323)	12/28/2000 3:08:26 PM
From: Eagle	Respond to of 57584

Buying CAG long @ 26

To: Rande Is who wrote (44323)	12/29/2000 6:44:18 AM
From: chowder	Respond to of 57584

Hello Rande! ... I'm trying to determine my plan of action for the month of January and I'd like your thoughts. In my opinion, the market will probably price in a 1/2 percent rate decrease over the month of January. I don't know whether the "pricing in" will come early, in anticipation of a surprise rate cut prior to the scheduled FED meeting, or whether the market will spread the increase over the entire month. Any thoughts here? We know earnings are going to be disappointing. Are those disappointing earnings already priced into the stocks? If not, when? I don't think there's a chance of a surprise rate cut before the end of the month. I've been reading Bob Woodward's book about Greenspan. AG in the past has resented pressure to lower rates. He is on record as having told high echelon people that if they persisted in pressuring him publicly, he'd raise rates rather than lower them. (Spunky guy, eh?) I believe we see a 1/4 percent rate decrease with some sort of favorable bias and here's why. On page 61 of the book Maestro, in referring to the weak economy on July 6, 1989, and after lowering the rate 1/4 from 9 3/4 to 9 1/2 the previous month, AG says and I quote..... >> "I'm concerned that the worst thing that can happen to us, as far as policy is concerned, is that we are perceived to be easing too fast and in a manner which could open up the possibilities of inflationary expectations." He proposed another 1/4 percent cut in the fed funds rate. Hence my thinking we see a 1/4 percent rate cut at the regularly scheduled meeting. A selloff will ensue. If you disagree with my analysis, please comment. If you agree, what's the best way to play it? I appreciate and thank you for your thoughts and ideas. dabum